SPC AC 181559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1059 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

   Valid 181630Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON
   AND EARLY EVENING OVER PORTIONS OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND WESTERN
   OKLAHOMA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail will be possible across the
   Texas Panhandle vicinity from about 5 to 9 PM CDT.

   ...TX Panhandle...
   Clear skies are currently present across the TX Panhandle and
   western OK, where dewpoints are in the 50s to lower 60s and
   afternoon temperatures will approach 90F.  The result will be a
   deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates.  A
   weak surface boundary will stretch across the region by late
   afternoon.  Roughly half of the morning CAM solutions suggest widely
   scattered high-based thunderstorms will form along this boundary. 
   Winds aloft are rather weak, so those cells that form will likely be
   rather disorganized and transient in intensity.  However, the
   strongest cells could produce locally gusty winds and hail for a few
   hours early this evening.

   ...Elsewhere...
   Elsewhere, another mesoscale area of modest concern for strong
   storms would be over parts of eastern NE.  If a storm or two can
   form in this area, gusty winds might be possible for a couple of
   hours.  Finally, scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms may
   occur across much of the intermountain west today from MT/UT into
   the Four Corners region.  Any cell in this area could produce a
   locally intense wind gust, but the overall coverage is expected to
   be low.

   ..Hart/Wendt.. 09/18/2023

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