Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 181951
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0251 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Valid 182000Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
OF THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND SOUTH PLAINS...AND ADJACENT PORTIONS OF
SOUTHEASTERN NEW MEXICO AND WESTERN OKLAHOMA...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail will be possible across the
Texas Panhandle vicinity from about 5 to 9 PM CDT.
...Discussion...
Aside from minor line adjustments, the reasoning regarding, and the
areal extent of, the potential/isolated severe-weather threat for
this afternoon and early evening across the Texas Panhandle/South
Plains and vicinity remains consistent with prior outlooks. Thus,
no major changes appear necessary at this time.
..Goss.. 09/18/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1059 AM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023/
...TX Panhandle...
Clear skies are currently present across the TX Panhandle and
western OK, where dewpoints are in the 50s to lower 60s and
afternoon temperatures will approach 90F. The result will be a
deeply mixed boundary layer with steep low-level lapse rates. A
weak surface boundary will stretch across the region by late
afternoon. Roughly half of the morning CAM solutions suggest widely
scattered high-based thunderstorms will form along this boundary.
Winds aloft are rather weak, so those cells that form will likely be
rather disorganized and transient in intensity. However, the
strongest cells could produce locally gusty winds and hail for a few
hours early this evening.
...Elsewhere...
Elsewhere, another mesoscale area of modest concern for strong
storms would be over parts of eastern NE. If a storm or two can
form in this area, gusty winds might be possible for a couple of
hours. Finally, scattered high-based showers and thunderstorms may
occur across much of the intermountain west today from MT/UT into
the Four Corners region. Any cell in this area could produce a
locally intense wind gust, but the overall coverage is expected to
be low.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0100Z
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