Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 190046
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0746 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023
Valid 190100Z - 191200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail remain possible across the
Texas Panhandle vicinity the remainder of this evening.
Dominant upper anticyclone remains anchored over northern Mexico
this evening. As a result, notable southern stream mid-level flow
extends across the southwestern US into the southern Plains. Within
this flow, several weak mid-level short-wave troughs are embedded
from AZ/NM into the eastern TX Panhandle. The lead feature appears
partly responsible for isolated thunderstorm activity across the
eastern TX Panhandle. This activity is moving slowly east toward the
OK/TX border but appears to be struggling to maintain intensity over
the last hour or so, possibly due to cooling boundary layer. Another
weak short-wave trough has topped the upper ridge over NM and
scattered/isolated weak convection is noted with this disturbance
across much of northern/central NM. NM short wave will approach the
southern Plains later this evening which should encourage some
increase in the LLJ across the TX South Plains into central KS.
Resultant increasing LLJ should contribute to additional convection
later this evening. While gusty winds and marginally severe hail may
be noted with this convection, most thunderstorms may remain
sub-severe as they spread toward western OK.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z