SPC AC 190046

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0746 PM CDT Mon Sep 18 2023

   Valid 190100Z - 191200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
   SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated, marginal severe wind and hail remain possible across the
   Texas Panhandle vicinity the remainder of this evening.

   ...01z Update...

   Dominant upper anticyclone remains anchored over northern Mexico
   this evening. As a result, notable southern stream mid-level flow
   extends across the southwestern US into the southern Plains. Within
   this flow, several weak mid-level short-wave troughs are embedded
   from AZ/NM into the eastern TX Panhandle. The lead feature appears
   partly responsible for isolated thunderstorm activity across the
   eastern TX Panhandle. This activity is moving slowly east toward the
   OK/TX border but appears to be struggling to maintain intensity over
   the last hour or so, possibly due to cooling boundary layer. Another
   weak short-wave trough has topped the upper ridge over NM and
   scattered/isolated weak convection is noted with this disturbance
   across much of northern/central NM. NM short wave will approach the
   southern Plains later this evening which should encourage some
   increase in the LLJ across the TX South Plains into central KS.
   Resultant increasing LLJ should contribute to additional convection
   later this evening. While gusty winds and marginally severe hail may
   be noted with this convection, most thunderstorms may remain
   sub-severe as they spread toward western OK.

   ..Darrow.. 09/19/2023

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