Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
43,167
2,537,038
Oklahoma City, OK...Abilene, TX...Norman, OK...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 %
69,736
7,633,174
Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...Irving, TX...
SPC AC 191950
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0250 PM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 192000Z - 201200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
OKLAHOMA...THE TEXAS BIG COUNTRY...AND NORTH-CENTRAL TEXAS...
...SUMMARY...
Severe thunderstorms capable of large to very hail and damaging
gusts are possible today and tonight across portions of Oklahoma and
the Texas Big Country into north-central Texas.
...20Z Update...
...Much of OK into TX Big Country and North TX...
Warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms continue in an arc from
north-central OK into north-central TX. Temperatures immediately
west of the this arc are in the low 80s, increasing into the upper
80s and low 90s farther west across western OK and adjacent portions
of the TX Panhandle. This warming is expected to continue, fostering
further destabilization ahead a subtle shortwave moving across the
TX/OK Panhandles. Consequently, as outlined in the previous
forecast, re-development is still anticipated across western OK and
northwest TX later this afternoon/evening. These storms will then
track eastward/northeastward into more of central OK and
north-central TX. Moderate northwesterly flow aloft will contribute
to 45-50 kt of effective shear, supporting the potential for
organized updrafts capable of large to very large hail. Damaging
gusts are possible with this activity as well, particularly if
upscale growth into a forward-propagating line occurs.
..Mosier.. 09/19/2023
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1110 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023/
...OK/North TX...
Morning water vapor imagery loop shows multiple subtle mid-level
vorticity maxima moving across the central Plains. The primary
system is currently over southwest/south-central KS, and aided in
rather widespread convection overnight across OK/KS. The back edge
of stronger forcing associated with this feature is over western OK,
with clear skies and southerly low-level winds back in place. By
mid/late afternoon, strong heating will lead to a corridor of
moderate CAPE across western OK into western North TX. A consensus
of CAMS develop scattered thunderstorms along this axis, with storms
persisting for a few hours and tracking into central OK and
north-central TX. Forecast soundings show steep mid-level lapse
rates and 40-50 knots of effective shear. This will support
supercells capable of very large hail and damaging wind gusts. An
isolated tornado or two is also possible.
Model guidance is also consistent in developing storms in
north-central OK this afternoon, just ahead of the upper system over
KS. This area will see less heating/destabilization than farther
south, but could also see a cluster of intense storms that move
across northeast OK. Damaging winds and hail would be the main
threat.
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