Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
SPC AC 200555
Day 1 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1255 AM CDT Wed Sep 20 2023
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PART OF
EASTERN OKLAHOMA...WESTERN ARKANSAS AND FAR NORTHEAST TEXAS...
Thunderstorms, associated with hail and marginally severe winds,
will be possible across parts of eastern Oklahoma, western Arkansas
and far northeast Texas late this afternoon and evening.
...Eastern Oklahoma/Western Arkansas/Far Northeast Texas...
A shortwave trough will move slowly eastward into the lower to mid
Mississippi Valley today. At the surface, south-southeasterly flow
will help maintain a moist airmass located from east Texas northward
into eastern Oklahoma. Surface dewpoints will be in the mid to upper
60 F along this corridor, with moderate instability developing by
afternoon. As surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to
scattered convective initiation is expected across part of this
airmass. The greatest convective coverage is expected from eastern
Oklahoma into western Arkansas, where low-level flow is forecast to
be maximized. RAP forecast soundings in eastern Oklahoma around
00Z/Thu show moderate deep-layer shear with 700-500 mb lapse rates
near 8 C/km. This will likely support an isolated severe threat with
rotating storms possible. Hail and marginally severe gusts will be
the primary threats. At this time, the stronger forcing with the
shortwave trough and strongest instability appear to be dislocated
from one another, with the shortwave trough well toward the east.
This, combined with the potential for a very small maximized threat
area, will drive the decision to maintain a marginal risk for this
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