Oct 5, 2023 1300 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Thu Oct 5 12:29:58 UTC 2023 (20231005 1300Z Day 1 shapefile | 20231005 1300Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20231005 1300 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20231005 1300 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20231005 1300 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20231005 1300 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
   SPC AC 051229

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0729 AM CDT Thu Oct 05 2023

   Valid 051300Z - 061200Z

   ...NO SEVERE THUNDERSTORM AREAS FORECAST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Organized severe thunderstorms are not expected today.

   ...Synopsis/Discussion...
   In mid/upper levels, high-amplitude troughing now over central parts
   of the CONUS and Canada is forecast to shift eastward through the
   period, as a series of shortwaves traverse the associated cyclonic-
   flow field.  By 12Z tomorrow, the mean trough should extend from
   western Hudson Bay southward over the Mississippi Valley.

   A compact yet pronounced shortwave trough -- apparent in moisture-
   channel imagery from Lake Winnipeg southward over the Red River of
   the North -- will pivot eastward across MN today and over parts of
   Lake Superior, Upper MI and eastern WI tonight.  This trough then
   will weaken and eject northeastward over northern ON as an upstream
   shortwave trough -- now located over far northern to northeastern AB
   -- digs southeastward rapidly.  The upstream trough should reach
   southern portions of SK/MB by 00Z, then extend across parts of SD
   and southern/central MN by the end of the period.  Much farther
   south, a weaker, positively tilted perturbation is apparent near a
   JLN-LTS-ELP axis.  This feature should reach from central MS across
   northern LA to south-central TX by 00Z, then weaken while moving
   southeastward over coastal LA and the middle/upper TX Coast by 12Z.

   At the surface, a cold front was evident at 11Z from eastern Upper
   MI to west-central MO, central OK, northwest TX, and southeastern
   NM.  By 00Z, this front should reach Lake Huron, central IL, the
   Arklatex region, and southwest TX, preceded by a substantial outflow
   boundary now located across south TX from near BPT to south of DRT. 
   Isolated to scattered thunderstorms are expected mainly along and
   behind the outflow boundary over TX and LA, and on both sides of the
   front northeastward into the Upper Great Lakes region.  The only
   substantial instability will be south of the boundary across south
   TX, with strong surface heating and upper 60 to mid 70s F surface
   dewpoints.  However, low/middle-level winds and shear will be weak,
   combining with the anafrontal character of the boundary to limit
   organization/longevity of any strong convection.  While isolated
   hail or damaging gusts cannot be ruled out, the threat remains too
   transient, conditional and sparse for an outlook area.

   ..Edwards/Thompson.. 10/05/2023

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