Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...Clovis, NM...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Wichita Falls, TX...Lawton, OK...
SPC AC 220557
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1257 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023
Valid 231200Z - 241200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE EASTERN
TEXAS PANHANDLE INTO SOUTHWESTERN OKLAHOMA AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...
Severe thunderstorms are possible from the Texas Panhandle into
western Oklahoma and northwest Texas on Tuesday.
Upper ridging is forecast remain over the central CONUS on Tuesday,
flanked on each side by shortwave troughs. Any stronger flow
associated with these shortwaves is expected to remain north of the
International border, with the exception of some stronger
southwesterly flow aloft across the northern Rockies into the
northern High Plains. Surface pattern will remain similar to Monday,
with ridging over the Northeast, Great Lakes, and OH Valley and lee
troughing throughout the High Plains.
Another day of scattered thunderstorm development is anticipated
across the central Rockies, as upper ridging persists across the
central CONUS. Isolated thunderstorms are also possible farther west
across NV, as weak ascent glances the region during the afternoon.
Widespread thunderstorms are also possible across the FL Peninsula
during the afternoon and evening. Shear will likely be slightly
weaker than Monday, limiting the severe thunderstorm potential.
Scattered thunderstorms, some severe, are also possible across the
southern High Plains.
...Southern High Plains into western OK and northwest TX...
Preceding storms (and resulting outflow) could dictate the severe
threat over the region on Tuesday. Current expectation is that low
60s dewpoints will likely be in place Tuesday afternoon across the
eastern TX Panhandle, despite numerous thunderstorms on Monday
evening. High-resolution guidance is in good agreement that
thunderstorm initiation is expected relatively early (i.e. before
21Z) in the TX Panhandle/NM border vicinity, as low-level moisture
returns across the region. This returning low-level moisture coupled
with diurnal heating is expected to destabilize the air mass
downstream over the TX Panhandle, while also supporting moderate
buoyancy. As a result, thunderstorms that develop along the NM/TX
border vicinity would then evolve southeastward into the more
buoyant air mass downstream. Given the high cloud bases, an
outflow-dominant storm mode is favored, with a quick transition
towards a more linear storm mode anticipated. As such, the primary
risk will likely be damaging gusts. However, there is a remote
chance of more discrete development farther east across the
Panhandle, where better low-level moisture and southeasterly surface
winds could promote a supercellular mode.
Early afternoon thunderstorm development is anticipated as modest
ascent attendant to an approaching shortwave trough interacts with
the unstable and modest buoyant air mass in place. Despite
widespread thunderstorm coverage, the overall severe potential is
expected to remain relatively low, owing primarily to the lack of
stronger vertical shear.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z