May 23, 2023 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 23 05:59:41 UTC 2023 (20230523 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20230523 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20230523 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 133,300 2,018,650 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Pueblo, CO...San Angelo, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20230523 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 32,668 514,030 Amarillo, TX...Plainview, TX...Pampa, TX...Hereford, TX...Dumas, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20230523 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 133,547 2,097,843 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Abilene, TX...Pueblo, CO...San Angelo, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20230523 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 89,132 1,431,351 Lubbock, TX...Amarillo, TX...Pueblo, CO...Clovis, NM...Plainview, TX...
   SPC AC 230559

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Tue May 23 2023

   Valid 241200Z - 251200Z


   Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
   central and southern High Plains into northwest Texas.

   Upper ridging is forecast to persist across the central CONUS on
   Wednesday, while the flanking upper troughs both deepen slightly.
   Deepening of the western CONUS upper troughing is expected later in
   the period as shortwave trough rotates through its base over
   central/southern CA. Primary feature within the eastern CONUS
   troughing will be a shortwave trough expected to move through
   eastern Ontario and southern Quebec and into the Northeast while

   At the surface, lee troughing is expected to sharpen somewhat on
   Wednesday, contributing to stronger southeasterly surface winds.
   These stronger winds will result in better low-level convergence,
   particularly over the central and northern High Plains, with
   afternoon thunderstorms anticipated across the majority of the High
   Plains. Farther north and east, a strong cold front is expected to
   push southward/southeastward across the OH Valley and Northeast. 
   Modest buoyancy may develop ahead of this front, supporting
   thunderstorm potential. 

   ....Central and Southern High Plains...
   Thunderstorms are once again forecast to develop during the
   afternoon over both the higher terrain and along the lee trough. 
   Northwesterly flow will then take these storms into a more buoyant
   air mass downstream, with consolidation along outflows into a more
   coherent line possible. Some potential exist for a few discrete
   cells, particularly along the lee trough, resulting in a non-zero
   threat for isolated hail and/or a brief tornado or two. 

   ...Central TX...
   Remnant MCV generated by preceding convection may be in place over
   the region early Wednesday morning. Some enhancement of both the
   mid-level flow and low-level convergence is possible in the vicinity
   of this vorticity max, contributing to some potential for a few
   stronger, more organized storms. However, uncertainty regarding the
   location and strength of this MCV limits forecast confidence,
   precluding the addition of any associated severe probabilities with
   this outlook.  

   ...Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
   Afternoon thunderstorms are possible ahead of subtle shortwave
   trough rounding the based of the larger upper troughing over the
   western CONUS. Low-level moisture will be meager, but modest
   buoyancy is still anticipated via cold temperatures aloft. Given the
   deep southerly flow aloft anticipated, a strong gust or two is
   possible with any more robust and persistent updrafts, although
   overall coverage will likely be limited.  

   A narrow corridor of modest buoyancy may develop over the region
   ahead of an approaching shortwave and attendant cold front. Forcing
   for ascent along the front will be augmented by large-scale ascent
   attendant to the shortwave, supporting showers and thunderstorms as
   it interacts with this buoyancy. However, overall buoyancy will be
   mitigate by poor mid-level lapse rates, and updrafts will likely be
   shallow and short lived. As such, the severe potential is expected
   to be low.

   ..Mosier.. 05/23/2023