Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
233,797
19,021,271
Miami, FL...Colorado Springs, CO...Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Hialeah, FL...
SPC AC 231731
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1231 PM CDT Tue May 23 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE
SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS AREA...
...SUMMARY...
Strong to locally severe thunderstorms are possible from the central
and southern High Plains into northwest Texas.
...Central and southern High Plains into central Texas...
While Day 1 convection will affect convective potential across
portions of the southern Plains for Tuesday, it appears that
destabilization of the seasonably moist boundary layer should result
in scattered storm development during the afternoon and into the
evening. While prior outflows will likely focus some convective
development, a favored location for new storm development appears to
be along the front range, south to northeastern New Mexico. While
potential for locally gusty/damaging winds and hail will be possible
across a broad area -- extending as far southeastward as central
Texas, the greatest risk appears to exist across the TX/OK Panhandle
vicinity. Here, storms are expected to develop over the higher
terrain of northeastern New Mexico/southeastern Colorado, and then
potentially grow upscale into a southeastward-propagating MCS
through late afternoon and into the evening. Aided by low-level
southeasterly flow beneath moderate mid-level northwesterlies,
potential for damaging winds and hail can be expected as the MCS
matures, spreading southeastward toward parts of western North Texas
before weakening diurnally.
...Central and southern Florida...
With the southern portion of an eastern U.S. trough lingering across
Florida, providing both a slightly enhanced flow field aloft, and
cool mid-level temperatures/steep lapse rates aloft, scattered,
potentially strong afternoon thunderstorms are forecast to once
again develop across much of the Florida Peninsula. Storms are
expected near both sea-breeze boundaries, with some merging of
storms over central portions of the Peninsula expected. Aided by
the enhanced mid-level flow, a few of the stronger cells may produce
locally strong/damaging wind gusts, and marginal hail into the early
evening hours before storms diurnally diminish.
...Parts of the Great Basin into Montana...
Modest afternoon destabilization is forecast across portions of the
Great Basin/northern Rockies Tuesday, in the vicinity of a surface
front associated with mid-level troughing that will remain
quasi-stationary across the West.
As afternoon convection develops near the front, and over
terrain-favored areas, a few stronger/organized storms should evolve
-- aided by mid-level south-southwesterlies around 30 kt. Given
potential for locally strong/gusty winds with stronger cells through
late afternoon/early evening, and potential for hail as well,
upgrade to MRGL risk is warranted.
..Goss.. 05/23/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z
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