SPC AC 131730

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1230 PM CDT Thu Jul 13 2023

   Valid 141200Z - 151200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS OVER MUCH OF
   KANSAS...OKLAHOMA...AND SOUTHWEST MISSOURI...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms producing damaging wind and sporadic hail are forecast
   over much of the central Plains on Friday. Isolated damaging gusts
   or marginal hail will also be possible over parts of the Mid
   Atlantic and southern New England, and into parts of the southern
   High Plains.

   ...Synopsis...
   A large upper low will remain over Canada, with an upper ridge over
   the Southwest. In between, moderate northwest flow aloft will
   persist over the Plains. To the east, various weaker embedded waves
   will affect parts of the OH Valley, Mid Atlantic, and Great Lakes.
   Moisture will remain plentiful east of the Rockies, with the only
   exception the northern Plains and upper MS Valley where drier air
   will spread in from the northwest.

   ...Much of the central Plains...
   Storms are forecast to be ongoing over NE Friday morning near a
   stationary front and where low-level theta-e will be substantial.
   Some of these storms could have hail relatively early in the day,
   with an increasing threat throughout the day as the storms and the
   boundary push south into KS where heating will occur. Large hail is
   most likely with the initial activity, with a strong model signal of
   an MCS eventually pushing south/southeast into OK and southwest MO
   late. Damaging winds, as well as heavy rain, will become the primary
   concern.

   ..NC into southern New England...
   A deep-layer moist plume will remain in place with 850 mb winds out
   of the south/southwest, and a weak surface trough from the Carolinas
   into southern New England. Little heating will be needed to uncap
   the air mass, with storms focused over NC and VA during the day
   where lapse rates will be steepest. Another area of focus will be
   over southern New England where southerly winds will bring 70s F
   dewpoints northward across MA. Shear will not be very strong but
   veering winds with height may favor a few cells producing marginal
   hail.

   ...Upper Great Lakes/MI area...
   Moistening will occur over Lower MI during the day as with a
   west/southwest low-level wind regime, beneath cool midlevel
   temperatures and 500 mb winds over 40 kt. Strong heating will occur,
   which when combined with the rising dewpoints out of the southwest
   will yield plentiful instability. Scattered storms are expected to
   form over interior Lower MI during the late afternoon by virtue of
   weak convergence and an uncapped air mass, and lengthy straight
   hodographs will favor cellular storm mode with hail possible.

   ..Jewell.. 07/13/2023

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