New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
230,177
56,325,349
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
230,177
56,325,349
New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Kansas City, MO...
SPC AC 150556
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1256 AM CDT Sat Jul 15 2023
Valid 161200Z - 171200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE CENTRAL PLAINS...MID MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY...MID-ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST...
...SUMMARY...
Marginally severe storms with hail and strong wind gusts will be
possible on Sunday from parts of the central Plains into the mid
Mississippi Valley, and in parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast.
...Central Plains/Mid Missouri and Mid Mississippi Valleys...
An upper-level trough will move through the Upper Midwest on Sunday,
as mid-level flow remains northwesterly across the north-central
states. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward into the
central Plains. Surface dewpoints ahead of the front are expected to
be mostly from the mid 50s to lower 60s F. This will contribute to
destabilization during the day across much of southeast Nebraska and
Kansas, where a pocket of moderate instability may develop. As
surface temperatures warm during the day, isolated to scattered
thunderstorms appear likely to form near and to the south of the
front. A cluster or two could persist from late afternoon into the
evening.
NAM forecast soundings along the instability axis in south-central
Nebraska at 00Z/Monday have MLCAPE peaking near 2000 J/kg, with 0-6
km shear around 45 knots. Storms that can develop along and near the
front could have a severe threat, with a potential for hail and
strong gusty winds. However, there are a few limiting factors that
could marginalize any severe threat. First, a cap is forecast during
the afternoon near 850 mb across parts of the warm sector. Second,
700-500 mb lapse rates are only forecast to be in the 6 to 6.5 C/km
range in most areas. Third, a pocket of dry air at low-levels is
forecast to the south of the front. For these reasons, the
probability for a more substantial severe threat appears low, and
will not introduce a slight risk at this time.
...Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...
Southwesterly mid-level flow will be in place across the
northeastern U.S. on Sunday. At the surface, a cold front will
advance eastward through the central Appalachians. Ahead of the
front, a moist airmass will be present with surface dewpoints in the
upper 60s and lower 70s F. As destabilization occurs during the day
across this moist airmass, scattered thunderstorms are expected to
form and move east-northeastward across the region. Although
moderate deep-layer shear is forecast within this airmass,
instability is expected to remain weak in most areas. Thunderstorms
that can develop in areas that heat up the most could have a
marginal wind-damage threat with hail also possible.
..Broyles.. 07/15/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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