Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 %
28,442
5,901,169
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Plano, TX...Garland, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
72,757
8,359,101
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point. Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk
Area (sq. mi.)
Area Pop.
Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 %
103,454
10,221,365
Dallas, TX...Fort Worth, TX...Oklahoma City, OK...Tulsa, OK...Arlington, TX...
SPC AC 190548
Day 2 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
1248 AM CDT Tue Sep 19 2023
Valid 201200Z - 211200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PORTIONS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...
...SUMMARY...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible across the
southern Plains Wednesday afternoon and evening.
...Synopsis...
An upper ridge will develop across the southern Plains as a
mid-level trough amplifies over the northwestern U.S.
tomorrow/Wednesday. In response to this broad upper troughing,
surface lee troughing will take place across the Plains states,
supporting low-level moisture advection beneath cooler temperatures
aloft, resulting in a buoyant warm sector. Though deep-layer ascent
will be lackluster across the southern Plains given the approach of
an upper ridge, adequate shear and instability will be in place to
support an isolated severe thunderstorm or two if convective
initiation and sustenance can take place.
...Southern Plains...
At least some residual clouds, showers, and thunderstorms should be
ongoing across the southern Plains (remnant from Day 1) as a
mid-level impulse progresses toward the MS Valley and de-amplifies
through morning. Clearing should occur through the afternoon as
upper ridging sets in over the southern Plains. Here, surface
temperatures should warm into the upper 80s/low 90s F amid low to
mid 60s F dewpoints, overspread by 8 C/km mid-level lapse rates,
boosting SBCAPE to 1500-2500 J/kg. By late afternoon, a surface
mesolow may become established across southwestern OK/northwestern
TX, resulting in backed surface winds, which will be overspread by a
30-35 kt southwesterly low-level jet and 35-40 kts of northwesterly
500 mb flow. This veering/strengthening vertical wind profile will
support elongated hodographs, and over 40 kts of effective bulk
shear. An outflow boundary from earlier convection may become
established over central OK, where multiple guidance members depict
curved low-level hodographs and over 200 m2/s2 of effective SRH.
Should convective initiation take place and a storm becomes
sustained (especially near the outflow boundary), supercell
structures would be likely, accompanied by a localized threat for a
severe gust, instance of large hail, or a tornado.
However, height rises through the day cast doubt on appreciable
convective coverage, with some of the latest high-resolution
ensemble guidance depicting little in the way of storm coverage by
Wednesday evening. A Category 1/Marginal Risk remains in place given
the favorable kinematic/thermodynamic environment. However, severe
probabilities may be removed if the lack of thunderstorm development
becomes more apparent.
..Squitieri.. 09/19/2023
CLICK TO GET WUUS02 PTSDY2 PRODUCT
NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z
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