SPC AC 200800

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0200 AM CST Fri Jan 20 2023

   Valid 221200Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS SUNDAY ACROSS
   PARTS OF NORTHERN FLORIDA...SOUTHEASTERN ALABAMA...MUCH OF SOUTHERN
   GEORGIA AND ADJACENT SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A couple of strong thunderstorms may impact parts of southern
   Georgia, northern Florida and portions of adjacent states Sunday,
   accompanied by at least some potential for producing damaging wind
   gusts and tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   Latest model output indicates that amplified mid-level ridging, with
   an embedded high, will remain prominent across the eastern Pacific
   into U.S. Pacific coastal areas through this period.  At the same
   time, a western Atlantic subtropical high may continue to build
   west-northwestward across the Caribbean and Bahamas, while a
   significant mid-level low develops west-southwestward across the
   northeastern Canadian Arctic latitudes.  In between, short wave
   developments within split branches of westerlies across much of
   North America remain unclear, with substantial spread still evident
   in model output, particularly inland of the U.S. Pacific coast
   through the Atlantic Seaboard.

   In general, it appears that one consolidating mid-level trough will
   accelerate from the lower Missouri Valley/southern Great Plains
   vicinity toward the Atlantic Seaboard, as a more prominent upstream
   perturbation digs south-southeastward across the Intermountain West
   and Rockies vicinity.  Models indicate that the lead impulse may
   eventually support significant surface cyclogenesis along a remnant
   frontal zone initially advancing inland across parts of the
   Southeast. However, latest output continues to suggest that the most
   substantive deepening may not occur until Sunday night, mainly
   offshore, from near the southern Mid Atlantic toward southern New
   England coasts.

   ...Southeast...
   Coinciding with the frontal wave, southerly return flow emanating
   from the Gulf of Mexico may continue to moisten across the region
   Sunday.  Associated destabilization, potentially supportive of
   thunderstorm development inland of the Gulf of Mexico, will largely
   be confined to the cool side of the front initially.  However,
   models indicate that weak boundary-layer moistening and
   destabilization may accompany the inland-migrating low across the
   Florida Panhandle into southern Georgia during the morning into
   afternoon.  If this occurs, it appears that it will do so in the
   presence of 40-60+ kt southwesterly to west-southwesterly flow in
   the 850-500 mb layer, with forecast hodographs becoming conducive to
   organized convection.  This may include a couple of discrete
   supercell structures with potential to produce locally strong
   surface gusts and/or tornadoes, before the favorable large-scale
   forcing develops offshore of the south Atlantic coast by Sunday
   evening.

   ..Kerr.. 01/20/2023

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