SPC AC 220724
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0224 AM CDT Mon May 22 2023
Valid 241200Z - 251200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM THE CENTRAL
AND SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS...
Isolated strong to severe thunderstorms are possible from the
central and southern High Plains into northwest Texas.
...Synopsis and Discussion...
Some modest deepening of the western CONUS troughing is anticipated
on Wednesday, promoted by a pair of shortwave troughs rotating
through its base over CA and the Great Basin. Upper ridging is
forecast to persist across the central CONUS, while a shortwave
trough moves through eastern Ontario and southern Quebec and into
the Northeast while maturing.
Surface pattern across the central CONUS will remain similar to
preceding days, with lee troughing throughout the High Plains and
60s dewpoints confined to TX and OK. Farther north and east, a
strong cold front is expected to push southward/southeastward across
the OH Valley and Northeast. Modest buoyancy may develop ahead of
this front, supporting thunderstorm potential. Enhanced
mid/upper-level westerly flow aloft will likely be strong enough to
support storms capable of damaging gusts. Uncertainty regarding
storm coverage precludes delineating any areas.
With little change in the overall upper pattern and low-level
moisture layout, a repeated scenario of afternoon thunderstorm
development across the central and southern High Plains is
anticipated. A few strong to severe storms are anticipated, with
damaging gusts as the main threat. A corridor of slightly higher
severe storms coverage may materialize, but uncertainty regarding
preceding thunderstorms and related outflow prevents the confidence
needed to delineate higher probabilities with this outlook.
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