SPC AC 230609
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0109 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023
Valid 251200Z - 261200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds and hail,
will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into
the Sabine River Valley.
...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley...
At mid-levels, northwesterly flow is forecast to develop on Monday
across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the
Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
across the southern Plains. By afternoon, the front is expected to
be located from far west Texas eastward into the Texas Hill Country
and southeast Texas. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the front
will be mostly in the 60s F. This, along with surface temperatures
in the mid to upper 80s F, will contribute to the development of
moderate to strong instability across much of the moist airmass by
afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak across most of
the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
develop near the front during the mid to late afternoon, mainly due
to surface heating and low-level convergence. In spite of the
instability, forecast soundings near the front Monday afternoon
suggest that deep-layer shear will be weak. This should keep any
severe threat relatively isolated during the late afternoon and
early evening, with hail and marginally severe gusts possible with
the stronger multicells.
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