SPC AC 230609

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0109 AM CDT Sat Sep 23 2023

   Valid 251200Z - 261200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND SABINE RIVER VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds and hail,
   will be possible on Monday from parts of the southern Plains into
   the Sabine River Valley.

   ...Southern Plains/Sabine River Valley...
   At mid-levels, northwesterly flow is forecast to develop on Monday
   across the Great Plains, as an upper-level trough moves across the
   Southeast. At the surface, a cold front will advance southward
   across the southern Plains. By afternoon, the front is expected to
   be located from far west Texas eastward into the Texas Hill Country
   and southeast Texas. Surface dewpoints in the vicinity of the front
   will be mostly in the 60s F. This, along with surface temperatures
   in the mid to upper 80s F, will contribute to the development of
   moderate to strong instability across much of the moist airmass by
   afternoon. Although large-scale ascent should be weak across most of
   the region, isolated to scattered thunderstorms appear likely to
   develop near the front during the mid to late afternoon, mainly due
   to surface heating and low-level convergence. In spite of the
   instability, forecast soundings near the front Monday afternoon
   suggest that deep-layer shear will be weak. This should keep any
   severe threat relatively isolated during the late afternoon and
   early evening, with hail and marginally severe gusts possible with
   the stronger multicells.

   ..Broyles.. 09/23/2023

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