SPC AC 250721
Day 3 Convective Outlook
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023
Valid 271200Z - 281200Z
...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
THE OHIO VALLEY...
Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds and hail,
will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.
An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the
southwestern Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist
airmass will be in place across the Ohio Valley, where surface
dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 60s F. A small pocket of
moderate instability may develop near the Ohio River in northern
Kentucky and southern Indiana by Wednesday afternoon. Surface
heating, along with large-scale ascent associated with the
upper-level trough, will support scattered thunderstorms across the
Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
near Cincinnati at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to
1200 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 25 to 30 knots. This,
combined with cold air aloft associated with the upper-level system,
may be enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger cells.
Isolated strong gusts will also be possible. The severe threat will
likely be concentrated in the late afternoon and early evening.
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NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z