SPC AC 250721

   Day 3 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0221 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2023

   Valid 271200Z - 281200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE OHIO VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms, associated with marginally severe winds and hail,
   will be possible across parts of the Ohio Valley on Wednesday.

   ...Ohio Valley...
   An upper-level low is forecast to move northeastward into the
   southwestern Great Lakes on Wednesday. At the surface, a moist
   airmass will be in place across the Ohio Valley, where surface
   dewpoints are forecast to be in the lower 60s F. A small pocket of
   moderate instability may develop near the Ohio River in northern
   Kentucky and southern Indiana by Wednesday afternoon. Surface
   heating, along with large-scale ascent associated with the
   upper-level trough, will support scattered thunderstorms across the
   Ohio Valley during the afternoon and evening. Forecast soundings
   near Cincinnati at 00Z/Thursday have MLCAPE peaking in the 1000 to
   1200 J/kg range, with 0-6 km shear from 25 to 30 knots. This,
   combined with cold air aloft associated with the upper-level system,
   may be enough for marginally severe hail with the stronger cells.
   Isolated strong gusts will also be possible. The severe threat will
   likely be concentrated in the late afternoon and early evening.

   ..Broyles.. 09/25/2023

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0730Z