SPC AC 021622

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1122 AM CDT Tue Apr 02 2024

   Valid 021630Z - 031200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THIS
   AFTERNOON/EVENING FOR CENTRAL/EASTERN KY...SOUTHEAST IN...SOUTHERN
   OH...AND FAR WESTERN WV...

   ...SUMMARY...
   A severe weather outbreak is possible through this evening over the
   Ohio Valley with the broader severe weather risk including parts of
   the Southeast.  Strong and potentially long-track tornadoes are
   possible from Indiana and Ohio southward into the Mid South.  A
   threat for strong tornadoes may focus this evening into tonight
   across parts of Alabama and Georgia.

   ...OH/TN Valley area through this evening...
   Complex scenario late this morning with ongoing convection across
   WV, trailing outflow to the west across KY, and another cluster of
   storms moving into the trailing outflow zone across TN/KY.  The lead
   storms have produced damaging winds (up to 92 mph measured), though
   this line of storms should weaken near or just after midday as it
   encounters the remnant cool air wedge close to the WV/VA border. 
   The storms farther west will move along the remnant outflow zone,
   where surface temperatures are in the low-mid 70s with dewpoints of
   65-70 F.  A couple of the storms will likely become persistent
   supercells capable of producing tornadoes (some of which could be
   strong/EF2-3) given the already strong wind profiles/long hodographs
   with effective SRH of 200-300 m2/s2.

   Uncertainty is relatively high for areas north of the ongoing
   TN-KY-WV convection.  The storms approaching middle TN and southern
   KY will tend to reinforce the earlier outflow, which will likely
   interfere with/limit destabilization this afternoon toward parts of
   OH (especially eastern OH).  The corridor of richer low-level
   moisture from northeast AR into southeast MO (immediately west of
   the TN storms) suggests that air mass recovery will occur toward
   southern IL and southern/central IN by late morning into early
   afternoon, and southwest OH this afternoon.  Strong deep-layer
   shear/long hodographs associated with an amplifying midlevel
   trough/jet and a deepening surface cyclone will support the
   potential for fast-moving supercells capable of all severe hazards,
   including strong tornadoes where sufficient low-level
   warming/moistening occurs in the wake of the morning convection.  As
   previously mentioned, the northeastern extent of the primary severe
   threat into OH is more uncertain given the ongoing convection to the
   south, but will trim the northeast edge of the MDT risk area and
   expand south some to account for the outflow corridor enhancing the
   tornado threat on the mesoscale across KY.

   ...Eastern AL/western GA overnight...
   In response to the amplifying midlevel trough/deepening cyclone over
   the MS/OH Valleys, deep-layer flow and low-level moisture advection
   will increase tonight across AL/GA.  A surge of upper 60s
   boundary-layer dewpoints and strengthening low-level shear both
   appear supportive of supercells/tornadoes overnight in a broken band
   ahead of the synoptic cold front.  An isolated strong tornado or two
   will be possible.

   ..Thompson/Wendt.. 04/02/2024

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