May 14, 2024 0100 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue May 14 00:55:41 UTC 2024 (20240514 0100Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240514 0100Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240514 0100 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
ENHANCED 14,269 1,897,041 New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...Marrero, LA...
SLIGHT 39,129 4,459,935 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Brownsville, TX...Tallahassee, FL...Harlingen, TX...
MARGINAL 357,608 42,472,499 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240514 0100 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 13,870 1,739,155 New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...Marrero, LA...
2 % 119,590 15,097,941 Tampa, FL...St. Petersburg, FL...Orlando, FL...Mobile, AL...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240514 0100 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 14,338 1,919,873 New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...Biloxi, MS...
30 % 14,160 1,903,681 New Orleans, LA...Metairie, LA...Gulfport, MS...Kenner, LA...Biloxi, MS...
15 % 32,285 3,187,677 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...Pensacola, FL...Panama City, FL...
5 % 350,905 42,416,406 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240514 0100 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 7,032 1,264,660 Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...
15 % 6,960 1,265,084 Brownsville, TX...Harlingen, TX...Mission, TX...Pharr, TX...Edinburg, TX...
5 % 404,882 47,684,411 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Jacksonville, FL...Austin, TX...Memphis, TN...
   SPC AC 140055

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0755 PM CDT Mon May 13 2024

   Valid 140100Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS AN ENHANCED RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS
   OF EASTERN LOUISIANA...

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF DEEP
   SOUTH TEXAS AND PARTS OF EXTREME SOUTHEAST MISSISSIPPI INTO THE
   FLORIDA PANHANDLE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe-hail-producing storms should continue across deep south Texas
   for a few more hours. Severe gusts may also continue into the
   evening with storms in Louisiana as they move along the Gulf Coast.
   Finally, isolated instances of hail and damaging gusts are still
   possible this evening across the Florida Peninsula.

   ...01Z Update...
   A mid-level trough continues to traverse the southern U.S., with a
   moist and unstable airmass fueling strong to severe thunderstorms
   along immediate portions of the Gulf Coast. A trailing outflow
   boundary continues to progress across Deep South Texas, where
   hail-producing supercells continue to move offshore into the Gulf of
   Mexico. Large hail remains possible over the next couple of hours
   while storms remain onshore. Meanwhile, an organized bow-echo MCS
   continues to move across LA, where multiple severe gusts (some over
   65 kts) have been reported. This MCS is beginning to move toward a
   cooler, more stable airmass, which should dampen the severe wind
   threat to a degree. Nonetheless, at least a few more severe gusts
   may continue along the immediate Gulf Coast, where at least Slight
   risk probabilities have been maintained. Finally, a few supercells
   continue to move across the central FL peninsula, while additional
   storms continue to approach the peninsula from the Gulf. Here, the
   severe threat should also subside with nocturnal cooling. In the
   meantime, an isolated instance of severe hail or wind cannot be
   ruled out. A couple of strong storms remain possible over the
   southern Plains into the Ozarks closer to a weak surface low. Before
   nocturnal cooling, one of the stronger storms could produce a
   marginally severe gust or instance of hail.

   ..Squitieri.. 05/14/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z