SPC AC 230058

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0758 PM CDT Wed May 22 2024

   Valid 230100Z - 231200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN CENTRAL TX TO
   THE ARK-LA-MISS AND NORTHEAST OH TO WESTERN PA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms remain possible this evening from
   central Texas to the Ark-La-Miss, and in northeast Ohio to western
   Pennsylvania. Isolated severe thunderstorms may persist overnight
   from the Mid-South to the Northeast.

   ...01Z Update...
   Primary severe threat will exist immediately ahead of multiple
   clusters with embedded supercells from east-central TX to the
   Ark-La-Tex. Over the next few hours, a threat for significant severe
   wind/hail along with a couple tornadoes will continue. Recent HRRR
   and WoFS runs along with 18Z guidance suggests this activity will
   diminish during the late evening as MLCIN increases from south to
   north ahead of the clusters. Still, have expanded level
   1-2/MRGL-SLGT risks farther southeast in southeast TX to central LA.


   Elsewhere, thunderstorms from eastern TN to NY have largely
   subsided. Renewed development has occurred ahead of a surface cold
   front from the central OH Valley to southwest ON. This activity has
   held in a narrow convective line with marginally severe hail as the
   primary initial threat. Despite the unfavorable time of day, as the
   front fully overtakes this band, an increase in strong gusts may
   occur with some linear clustering, mainly across northeast OH into
   western PA.

   Finally, additional low-level warm theta-e advection storms should
   persist through the overnight from north TX across parts of the
   Ozarks and Mid-South. Isolated severe hail will be possible in the
   more sustained updrafts.

   ..Grams.. 05/23/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 1 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z