Jun 9, 2024 0600 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 9 05:59:20 UTC 2024 (20240609 1200Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240609 1200Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240609 1200 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
MARGINAL 637,007 43,279,978 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240609 1200 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
No Risk Areas Forecast
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240609 1200 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 638,242 43,350,686 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240609 1200 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 500,789 41,596,919 Memphis, TN...Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Oklahoma City, OK...Nashville, TN...
   SPC AC 090559

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A MARGINAL RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR PARTS OF
   CO/NM INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS...OZARKS...SOUTHEAST...NORTHERN GREAT
   BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/HIGH PLAINS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Strong to locally severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind
   gusts and some hail, are possible from the Ozarks vicinity eastward
   across the Tennessee Valley and Southeast.  Isolated severe storms
   with severe gusts and hail will also be possible across portions of
   the central High Plains and southern Plains.  Isolated strong to
   severe gusts may also occur over parts of the northern Intermountain
   region and northern High Plains.

   ...Ozarks into parts of the Tennessee Valley and Southeast...
   Storms will likely be ongoing at the start of the forecast period
   from southeast KS into the Ozarks vicinity, with sufficient buoyancy
   and deep-layer shear to support some threat for damaging wind and
   possibly some hail through the morning. Meanwhile, guidance
   generally suggests that a convectively enhanced vorticity maximum
   will move across southern MO through the day. This feature would
   likely be accompanied by locally stronger midlevel flow, but it may
   tend to be displaced north of the effective warm sector with time,
   as an outflow-reinforced cold front moves southward across Arkansas
   and parts of the Southeast. 

   Storm redevelopment will be possible in the vicinity of the front
   during the afternoon and evening, along with some potential for
   persistence of slightly elevated convection north of the boundary.
   Moderate to strong instability and at least modestly favorable
   deep-layer shear could support a few organized storms, with a threat
   of at least isolated damaging winds and hail. At this time, the
   greatest relative coverage of storms is currently expected from AR
   into parts of western TN and northern MS, and greater severe
   probabilities may be needed in this area, depending on the evolution
   of mesoscale details. Some potential for strong thunderstorms will
   also extend eastward across AL/GA into parts of the Carolinas, with
   some threat of isolated damaging wind and perhaps some hail.

   ...Eastern NM into west/southwest TX...
   Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected this afternoon and
   evening from eastern NM into parts of west/southwest TX, within a
   moist, moderately unstable, and weakly capped environment.
   Mid/upper-level flow is expected to remain weak, which will
   generally tend to limit storm organization. However, low-level
   east-northeasterly flow north of the southward-moving cold front may
   modestly enhance deep-layer shear, and a few stronger multicell
   clusters and perhaps a transient supercell will be possible, with a
   threat of at least isolated hail and severe gusts. 

   ...Northern NM into CO...eastern WY...and southeast MT...
   Scattered thunderstorm development is expected this afternoon into
   the evening from the Raton Mesa vicinity into parts of the CO Front
   Range. Deep-layer flow/shear will not be particularly strong, but
   moderate instability could support isolated hail and severe gusts
   with the strongest storms. A similar regime (with perhaps slightly
   better deep-layer shear) is expected from eastern WY into southeast
   MT, where a few strong storms capable of isolated hail and severe
   gusts will also be possible. 

   ...Northern Great Basin into the northern Rockies...
   A mid/upper-level shortwave trough will move across the interior
   Northwest during the day, and into the northern Rockies by tonight.
   MLCAPE of around 500 J/kg and modestly enhanced deep-layer shear
   could support occasionally organized storms. Localized severe gusts
   and perhaps some hail will be possible.

   ..Dean.. 06/09/2024

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