Jun 10, 2024 1630 UTC Day 1 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jun 10 16:26:19 UTC 2024 (20240610 1630Z Day 1 shapefile | 20240610 1630Z Day 1 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240610 1630 UTC Day 1 Outlook Graphic
Day 1 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 114,890 3,199,053 Lubbock, TX...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
MARGINAL 316,752 10,129,454 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240610 1630 UTC Day 1 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 66,694 2,010,802 Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...North Charleston, SC...Rapid City, SD...Mount Pleasant, SC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240610 1630 UTC Day 1 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 115,027 3,201,287 Lubbock, TX...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
5 % 315,679 10,120,789 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240610 1630 UTC Day 1 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 1 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 110,569 3,180,094 Lubbock, TX...Savannah, GA...Charleston, SC...Midland, TX...Odessa, TX...
5 % 312,941 10,056,789 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Mobile, AL...Tallahassee, FL...
   SPC AC 101626

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1126 AM CDT Mon Jun 10 2024

   Valid 101630Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE NORTHERN/CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...SOUTHEAST GEORGIA/COASTAL SOUTH
   CAROLINA...AND WEST TEXAS...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms with large hail and severe wind gusts should
   occur across parts of the northern/central High Plains this
   afternoon and early evening. Other strong to severe thunderstorms
   may also occur across portions of the Southeast and southern Plains
   beginning this afternoon, where large hail and damaging winds will
   be possible.

   ...Northern/Central High Plains...
   A mid-level shortwave trough noted on water vapor satellite imagery
   over the northern Rockies will continue to advance eastward today
   over the northern High Plains. A related weak surface low over
   eastern MT should consolidate and shift into Saskatchewan through
   early afternoon, while a separate surface low develops over the
   central High Plains. A cold front is progged to move eastward
   through the afternoon and early evening over the northern High
   Plains. Low-level moisture will remain fairly limited ahead of the
   front, with surface dewpoints generally in the mid to upper 50s.
   But, steep mid-level lapse rates and daytime heating will aid in the
   development of weak to locally moderate instability in a narrow
   corridor by mid afternoon. Although mid-level flow is not expected
   to be overly strong, sufficient veering/strengthening of the flow
   with height through mid levels will still support generally 35-45 kt
   of deep-layer shear. Current expectations are for thunderstorms to
   develop along or just ahead of the front in the 18-20Z time frame.
   Initial supercells should pose a threat for mainly severe hail, but
   quick upscale growth into one or more small clusters will probably
   lead to a greater severe/damaging wind risk as convection moves
   quickly eastward. A tornado or two also appears possible. The
   relatively narrow warm sector suggests that thunderstorm intensity
   should decrease through the early evening with eastward extent
   across the northern/central High Plains.

   ...Southeast...
   Latest surface observations show a weak cold front situated across
   southern AL/GA into coastal SC. The presence of a moist low-level
   airmass and robust daytime heating along/south of this boundary will
   likely promote moderate to locally strong instability developing by
   early afternoon. Weak low-level convergence along the front, coupled
   with modest ascent on the southern fringe of an upper trough over
   the eastern CONUS, should support robust convective development by
   18-20Z along/near the front in south/central GA and coastal SC. Weak
   westerly low-level flow is forecast to gradually increase with
   height through mid levels, which is expected to foster sufficient
   deep-layer shear to support supercells. Large hail should be a
   concern with this initially discrete activity, and some guidance
   shows potential for splitting supercells given a relatively
   long/straight westerly hodograph aloft. Occasional damaging winds
   will also be a concern with any small bowing clusters that can
   develop and spread eastward towards the coast through early evening.
   Weaker low-level convergence with southward extent into southern AL
   and the FL Panhandle suggests that overall thunderstorm coverage
   will remain more isolated across these areas.

   ...Southern Plains...
   A convectively augmented vorticity maximum/shortwave trough is
   evident late this morning over NM and west TX. An MCV is also noted
   in recent radar imagery across parts of northwest TX into the TX
   Panhandle. A surface cold front is in place over the southern High
   Plains. Although convective evolution remains somewhat uncertain
   later today, scattered thunderstorms will probably develop on the
   southern flank of the shortwave trough along and southwest of the
   front, and where better daytime heating can occur. Mid-level flow
   and related deep-layer shear should be a little stronger compared to
   yesterday, mainly owing to the influence of the MCV and mid-level
   shortwave trough. Latest high-resolution guidance continues to
   variability in whether an MCS will develop and become organized
   across west TX later today. Severe/damaging winds may occur if this
   scenario is realized, along with some hail with any isolated
   supercells that can develop.

   ..Gleason/Moore.. 06/10/2024

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