May 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 12 06:00:29 UTC 2024 (20240512 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240512 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240512 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 156,736 19,597,015 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
MARGINAL 195,237 17,911,824 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240512 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 30,957 2,050,741 Shreveport, LA...Tyler, TX...Longview, TX...Bossier City, LA...Monroe, LA...
2 % 175,062 26,013,880 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Dallas, TX...Austin, TX...Fort Worth, TX...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240512 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 157,495 19,682,151 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
5 % 194,208 17,694,332 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240512 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 60,722 6,922,875 San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Shreveport, LA...Waco, TX...Killeen, TX...
15 % 155,998 19,472,088 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
5 % 195,459 17,946,703 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
   SPC AC 120600

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0100 AM CDT Sun May 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM CENTRAL AND
   EAST TEXAS INTO THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are possible Monday from central and east Texas
   into the Lower Mississippi Valley.

   ...Synopsis...
   A southern-stream shortwave trough is forecast to extend from the
   central Plains south-southwestward into northeast Mexico early
   Monday morning, with associated strong mid-level flow spread from
   the southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley. This shortwave is
   expected to move gradually eastward, ended the period extended from
   the Mid MS Valley through east TX and into the northwest Gulf of
   Mexico.

   Primary surface low associated with this system will remain largely
   beneath the upper-level cyclone, moving from central KS early Monday
   morning eastward across MO and ending the period near the southern
   MO/IL border. A second, triple point low will likely be over the
   south-central OK/north-central TX border vicinity early Monday
   before moving eastward through southern AR throughout the day. Cold
   front extended southward from this triple point low will move
   gradually eastward through central and east TX during the day, and
   through LA overnight. Thunderstorms are anticipated along and ahead
   of this front from central TX and the TX Hill Country eastward into
   the Arklatex and Lower MS Valley.

   ...Southern Plains into the Lower MS Valley and Southeast...
   A very moist airmass is expected to be in place within the warm
   sector covering much of central/east TX and the Lower MS Valley.
   Western bound of the warm sector will be the eastward-progressing
   cold front, which is expected to extend from north-central TX
   through Edwards Plateau on Monday morning. The northern and eastern
   bounds of the warm sector will be a warm front arcing southeastward
   from north-central TX through northern LA and southern MS. The cold
   front will make gradual eastward progress while the warm front lifts
   northward/northeastward. Northward progression of the eastern
   portion of the warm front over southern MS may be stunted throughout
   much persistent warm-air advection showers and thunderstorms across
   central MS and AL.

   Given the ample low-level moisture (i.e. widespread low 70s
   dewpoints), the airmass is expected to destabilize quickly and there
   is some chance for thunderstorms could develop during the morning.
   When and where the first warm-sector storms of the day develop will
   have a large influence on the rest of the day, particularly if these
   early storms produce strong outflow. If initial development is
   widely spaced, multiple convective lines are possible. Closely
   spaced development would favor cold pool amalgamation and one
   convective line. In either case, large to very large hail will be
   the primary severe threat initially, with a trend towards more
   damaging gust potential as storms grow upscale. Relatively weak and
   veered low-level flow show keep the tornado threat low. The only
   exception is near the warm front, which will likely extend from
   northeast TX eastward into the southern AR/northern LA vicinity from
   Monday morning until at least the mid afternoon.

   Farther east from southern AL into southern GA and the FL Panhandle,
   gradual airmass destabilization may lead to a trend towards a more
   surface-based storm character near the warm front during the
   afternoon. Isolated damaging gusts and/or a brief tornado or two is
   possible in this area if this scenario is realized.

   ...Northern IL into Southern Lower MI...
   Thunderstorms are expected to develop along a southward-progressing
   cold front during the late afternoon. Weak vertical shear is
   expected to keep updraft organization limited, keeping the overall
   severe potential low.

   ..Mosier.. 05/12/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z