May 12, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun May 12 17:37:56 UTC 2024 (20240512 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240512 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240512 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 231,676 24,322,071 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
MARGINAL 204,074 22,174,224 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240512 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 118,815 9,103,578 New Orleans, LA...Baton Rouge, LA...Montgomery, AL...Shreveport, LA...Mobile, AL...
2 % 164,242 18,404,340 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Columbus, GA...Little Rock, AR...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240512 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 63,054 4,792,607 Baton Rouge, LA...Mobile, AL...Lafayette, LA...Gulfport, MS...Lake Charles, LA...
15 % 231,504 24,399,242 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
5 % 205,800 22,778,951 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Atlanta, GA...Arlington, TX...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240512 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 134,778 17,403,386 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...Baton Rouge, LA...Shreveport, LA...
15 % 159,803 19,786,060 Houston, TX...San Antonio, TX...Austin, TX...New Orleans, LA...Corpus Christi, TX...
5 % 269,451 24,748,070 Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Fort Worth, TX...Arlington, TX...Plano, TX...
   SPC AC 121737

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1237 PM CDT Sun May 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM MUCH OF
   EASTERN TEXAS EASTWARD ACROSS THE GULF COAST STATES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe thunderstorms are expected Monday over a large region from
   central and east Texas across parts of the Gulf Coast states. The
   potential may develop for corridors of significant wind gusts and
   very large hail, and a few tornadoes.

   ...Synopsis...
   A shortwave trough will move east from the central and southern
   Plains Monday into the Middle to Lower MS Valley through Tuesday
   morning, while an upper high remains centered over Cuba. As this
   trough moves east, heights will lower gradually across the region,
   with a slow flattening of the ridge along the Gulf Coast. Midlevel
   winds of 50-60 kt will be common, while stronger 70-90 kt flow at
   300 mb shifts northeastward with the shortwave trough from the
   ArkLaTex into the OH/TN Valleys.

   At the surface, a weak low/trough will develop from northern MO
   southward across the ArkLaTex and into southern TX. A very moist air
   mass will exist from eastern TX into the lower MS Valley, with
   increasing moisture late in the period across southern AL, GA, and
   FL as a warm front lifts north. The robust moisture will result in
   widespread clouds and precipitation throughout the period, which
   will complicate the forecast.

   In general, a relatively large area of substantial moisture and
   instability will stretch from TX eastward toward the central Gulf
   Coast during the day, beneath moderate westerlies aloft which will
   enhance deep-layer shear. Stronger low-level shear will be relegated
   to the warm front area, from AL into GA and northern FL, with
   various corridors of severe potential possible.

   ...Eastern TX into western GA...
   A complex forecast exists for Monday, with multiple areas of
   potential within a broad zone, and at various times of the day.
   While significant wind and hail will clearly be possible,
   predictability is low regarding the precise corridors of enhanced
   risk potential.

   Early on Monday, storms are expected to be ongoing from MS into AL
   and the FL Panhandle, related to warm/moist advection near and north
   of a warm front. Some of this activity immediately near the warm
   front may have a hail and tornado risk, as instability rapidly
   increases in proximity to stronger low-level effective SRH centered
   over southern AL.

   To the west, early-day storms are also anticipated from the ArkLaTex
   into east-central TX, beneath cooler temperatures aloft and where
   mid 70s F dewpoints will be in place. This activity may produce
   large hail, and eventually grow upscale into larger clusters or an
   MCS across eastern TX, LA and western MS through 00Z. Forecast
   soundings show ample instability, and moderate mid to high level
   winds, but with weak flow below 700 mb, suggesting MCS potential.

   Depending on the track of that activity, and the position of any
   outflows from the earlier storms farther east, the severe wind and
   hail risk may overspread additional areas extending again into AL
   and GA. As previously mentioned, potential air mass overturning and
   condition of the unstable boundary layer are the main uncertainties,
   and therefore the entire region remains in 15% Slight Risk category.
   However, corridor(s) of Enhanced Risk may be considered into the day
   1 period.

   ..Jewell.. 05/12/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 0600Z