Jun 9, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sun Jun 9 17:32:57 UTC 2024 (20240609 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240609 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240609 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 49,011 310,065 Rapid City, SD...Scottsbluff, NE...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...
MARGINAL 359,030 11,649,980 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240609 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 37,904 285,440 Rapid City, SD...Scottsbluff, NE...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240609 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 49,095 309,921 Rapid City, SD...Scottsbluff, NE...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...
5 % 358,353 11,656,184 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Mobile, AL...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240609 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 49,095 309,921 Rapid City, SD...Scottsbluff, NE...Spearfish, SD...Rapid Valley, SD...Sturgis, SD...
5 % 331,754 11,606,766 Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Aurora, CO...Lubbock, TX...Mobile, AL...
   SPC AC 091732

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1232 PM CDT Sun Jun 09 2024

   Valid 101200Z - 111200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF
   THE NORTHERN HIGH PLAINS REGION...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated severe storms with large hail and severe wind gusts will be
   possible on Monday in parts of the central and northern High Plains.
   Marginally severe thunderstorms will be possible in parts of the
   southern High Plains, and portions of the Southeast.

   ...Northern and central High Plains...
   A mid-level short-wave trough is forecast to advance eastward across
   the northern Intermountain Region Monday, allowing surface lee
   troughing to persist over the northern High Plains.  As an axis of
   modest (50s dewpoints) low-level moisture advects northward ahead of
   this upper system, near and ahead of the surface trough, daytime
   heating will permit 1000 to 2000 J/kg CAPE to develop during the
   afternoon.

   Ascent associated with the advancing upper system and associated
   surface trough, combined with the destabilizing environment, will
   result in development of isolated to scattered thunderstorms --
   perhaps initially near the higher terrain of northern and central
   Wyoming, but more robustly thereafter nearer the surface trough.  

   As a belt of enhanced (around 40 kt) westerly mid-level flow spreads
   atop the region, beneath low-level southerlies, shear sufficient for
   organized/rotating storms suggests potential for supercells
   initially, along with attendant risks for locally damaging wind
   gusts and hail.  Some upscale growth of storms is expected by
   evening, as congealing of cold pools occurs, and storms shift
   east-southeastward off the higher terrain.  Severe potential --
   increasingly in the form of locally damaging gusts -- will likewise
   spread eastward, before storms begin to diminish in tandem with
   nocturnal stabilization of the boundary layer.

   ...Southern High Plains...
   A weak upper low forecast to drift across the southern Rockies area,
   while afternoon heating leads to a destabilizing airmass across the
   southern High Plains region and vicinity, will lead to development
   of afternoon thunderstorms across the area.  While shear will remain
   generally weak across most of the area, and thus storms generally
   disorganized, some enhancement of northwesterly mid-level flow on
   the southwest side of the low will spread southeastward out of
   central New Mexico and into Far West Texas through the afternoon and
   evening.  As such, a small zone of greater severe risk could evolve
   across parts of the South Plains region and adjacent Permian
   Basin/Transpecos areas of Texas during the late afternoon and early
   evening hours.  Indeed, a few CAMs suggest some upscale growth of
   storms into a southeastward-moving MCS -- which could yield somewhat
   greater potential for strong wind gusts.  At this time, will refrain
   from a SLGT risk upgrade, due to uncertainty regarding this
   scenario.

   ...Parts of the Southeast...
   As a cold front sags southward across the Southeast, and becomes
   situated from the South Carolina Coast westward to the central Gulf
   coast, heating of the moist boundary layer near and south of the
   front should result in widely scattered storm development, focused
   along the frontal zone.  With rather weak low-level flow but some
   enhancement of the mid-level westerlies atop the front, a few
   stronger storms -- capable of producing marginal hail and/or locally
   damaging gusts -- are expected during the afternoon hours, before
   storms weaken after dark.

   ..Goss.. 06/09/2024

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