Jun 11, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 11 05:58:50 UTC 2024 (20240611 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240611 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240611 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 95,489 6,792,128 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
MARGINAL 190,006 6,876,600 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240611 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 38,168 4,802,566 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...Plymouth, MN...
2 % 122,208 4,440,576 Omaha, NE...Sioux Falls, SD...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...Waterloo, IA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240611 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 94,963 6,784,425 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 190,376 6,852,211 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240611 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 43,681 4,221,322 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
15 % 95,240 6,787,928 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 190,098 6,848,708 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Madison, WI...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...
   SPC AC 110558

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1258 AM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE UPPER MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe wind gusts, and
   perhaps a tornado or two are expected on Wednesday in parts of the
   Upper Midwest.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A belt of strong mid-level flow will be in place on Wednesday across
   the far northern U.S. Within the flow, a 60 to 80 knot mid-level jet
   is forecast to move eastward across far southern Saskatchewan. The
   exit region of this feature will overspread the upper Mississippi
   Valley during the day, strengthening large-scale ascent and
   deep-layer shear. At the surface, a cold front will advance eastward
   through the eastern Dakotas. Ahead of the front, surface dewpoints
   will likely reach the lower to mid 60s F from the mid Missouri
   Valley northeastward into the upper Mississippi Valley. During the
   afternoon, surface-based thunderstorms are expected to form along
   the western edge of the moist airmass, from eastern South Dakota
   into western Minnesota. These storms are expected to gradually
   increase in coverage, moving eastward into the upper Mississippi
   Valley during the late afternoon and early evening.

   NAM forecast soundings near the instability axis at 00Z/Thursday
   from central Minnesota into far northwest Iowa have MLCAPE in the
   1500 to 2500 J/kg range, 0-6 km shear around 45 knots, and 700-500
   mb lapse rates near 7.5 C/km. This environment will favorable for
   severe storms. The stronger cells could become supercellular and
   have a large hail threat. Hailstones greater than 2 inches in
   diameter will be possible with supercells that form in areas that
   destabilize the most. Some model solutions suggest that cells could
   be separated enough to favor discrete modes. By early evening,
   forecast soundings increase 0-3 km storm-relative into the 200 to
   250 m2/s2 range. These factors would support an isolated tornado
   threat with the more intense supercells. A wind-damage threat will
   also be possible with supercells, and with organized short line
   segments. The severe threat should continue into the mid to late
   evening as storms move eastward into the far western Great Lakes
   region.

   ..Broyles.. 06/11/2024

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