Jun 11, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 11 17:29:21 UTC 2024 (20240611 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240611 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240611 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 137,173 7,208,421 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
MARGINAL 136,453 5,243,742 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240611 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 66,776 5,466,159 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Bloomington, MN...
2 % 100,593 2,814,510 Fargo, ND...Duluth, MN...Sioux City, IA...Waterloo, IA...Eau Claire, WI...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240611 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 97,779 6,522,905 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 139,903 5,218,698 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fargo, ND...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240611 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SIG SEVERE 84,473 5,395,754 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Sioux City, IA...Bloomington, MN...
15 % 137,092 7,208,106 Minneapolis, MN...St. Paul, MN...Sioux Falls, SD...Rochester, MN...Duluth, MN...
5 % 136,329 5,222,572 Omaha, NE...Lincoln, NE...Des Moines, IA...Cedar Rapids, IA...Fargo, ND...
   SPC AC 111729

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1229 PM CDT Tue Jun 11 2024

   Valid 121200Z - 131200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THE UPPER
   MIDWEST...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Scattered severe thunderstorms capable of very large hail, damaging
   wind gusts, and a few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the
   Upper Midwest on Wednesday. The probable time frame for the most
   intense storms should be centered on late afternoon to early
   evening.

   ...Upper Midwest...
   A relatively complex convective scenario should unfold Wednesday
   with multiple rounds of severe potential anticipated. A mesoscale
   corridor of level 3-ENH risk may be warranted in later cycles,
   likely driven by greater hail probabilities, if spatial confidence
   increases. 

   A fast largely zonal upper jet, initially along the international
   border over the Northwest, will spread into ND and northern MN by
   early Thursday. This will be coincident with a shortwave trough
   moving from the Canadian Rockies to the southern Prairie Provinces.
   A surface cyclone should track from southeast SK to along the MN/ON
   border by Wednesday evening. In advance of this wave, pronounced
   low-level warm theta-e advection will occur from the Great Plains
   amid an elevated mixed layer shifting east from the Dakotas and
   central High Plains. 

   At least isolated elevated convection should be ongoing at 12Z along
   the periphery of the EML, centered on eastern SD into southwest MN.
   Consensus of guidance suggests this activity should persist into the
   diurnal heating cycle, centered on southern MN with a threat for
   isolated severe hail. Some of this activity may transition to
   surface-based character by midday to early afternoon with potential
   for an isolated strong wind threat as well. The spatial evolution of
   this early-day activity will likely modulate the overall threat,
   especially with northeast extent into western WI, where
   surface-based destabilization may be limited.

   The primary mid to late afternoon scenario should be focused ahead
   of the impinging cold front/surface trough in northwest MN to
   eastern SD. A confined plume of moderately large buoyancy should
   develop by peak heating with MLCAPE reaching 2000-3000 J/kg. The
   southwesterly low-level wind profile coupled with gradual veering to
   west-northwesterly (and strengthening) upper-level winds will favor
   hodograph elongation. Discrete supercells may tend to be more
   favored across northern MN initially before clustering into the
   evening. A messier convective mode is anticipated with southern
   extent, where residual outflow from early-day storms will likely
   focus regenerative convection. Tornado potential should be
   mesoscale-focused in this regime with enhanced low-level SRH near
   the trailing outflow, amid a more deeply mixed boundary layer to the
   west/south. This scenario should include embedded supercells within
   a southeast-sagging cluster into the evening as low-level winds
   become increasingly veered over IA. With greater
   buoyancy/instability to the west, the western portion of an evening
   cluster/MCS should contain the primary large hail/severe wind threat
   before convection wanes overnight.

   ..Grams.. 06/11/2024

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