Jun 12, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Wed Jun 12 05:59:51 UTC 2024 (20240612 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240612 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240612 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 99,240 15,608,080 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Aurora, IL...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
MARGINAL 140,167 18,221,567 Detroit, MI...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240612 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 99,535 15,918,113 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Aurora, IL...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240612 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240612 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 99,458 15,236,605 Chicago, IL...Kansas City, MO...Aurora, IL...Overland Park, KS...Kansas City, KS...
5 % 140,190 18,706,999 Detroit, MI...St. Louis, MO...Toledo, OH...Lincoln, NE...Fort Wayne, IN...
   SPC AC 120559

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1259 AM CDT Wed Jun 12 2024

   Valid 131200Z - 141200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS PARTS OF
   THE CENTRAL PLAINS...LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY...MID MISSISSIPPI VALLEY
   AND SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Thunderstorms associated with large hail and severe gusts will be
   possible on Thursday in parts of the central Plains, lower Missouri
   Valley, mid Mississippi Valley and southern Great Lakes. Marginally
   severe storms will also be possible in parts of the central High
   Plains.

   ...Central Plains/Lower Missouri and Mid Mississippi
   Valleys/Southern Great Lakes...
   An upper-level trough will move eastward into the western Great
   Lakes region on Thursday, as an associated 70 to 90 knot mid-level
   jet translates eastward across the upper Mississippi Valley. At the
   surface, a cold front is forecast to move southward across Nebraska,
   Iowa and northern Illinois. South of the front, surface dewpoints in
   the upper 60s to the mid 70s F will likely result in moderate
   instability by afternoon. Although a cap is forecast to be in place
   during the day, it should weaken by early evening to allow for
   convective initiation. As low-level convergence increases near the
   front, thunderstorms are expected to develop and move southeastward
   across the lower Missouri and mid Mississippi Valleys.

   Model forecasts suggest that the strongest instability early
   Thursday evening will be in northeast Kansas and northern Missouri.
   In this area, NAM forecast soundings at 03Z/Friday have MLCAPE
   approaching 5000 J/kg, with 0-6 km around 40 knots and 700-500 mb
   lapse rates between 7 and 7.5 C/km. This would be favorable for
   supercell development. Although large hail would be possible with
   the strongest of storms, the warm air aloft may temper the hail
   threat somewhat. Northwest mid-level flow could also favor linear
   development. Short line segments that can become organized could
   have a wind-damage threat. The strong instability could enable the
   severe threat to continue into the late evening, or even into the
   overnight period.

   Further northeast into the southern Great Lakes, a narrow corridor
   of moderate instability will likely be in place ahead of the front
   in the afternoon. Thunderstorms are expected to form along the
   front, and move southeastward across Lower Michigan and northern
   Indiana. A couple persistent clusters will be possible from late
   afternoon into the mid evening. NAM Forecast soundings in southern
   Lower Michigan during the early evening have MLCAPE around 2000 J/kg
   with 0-6 km shear near 50 knots. This will likely support supercell
   development, with a potential for large hail. An isolated tornado
   threat may also develop with the strongest of supercells. A
   potential for severe line segments with damaging wind gusts will
   also exist.

   ...Central High Plains...
   An upper-level ridge will move through the Rockies on Thursday, as
   west-northwest mid-level flow remains over the central High Plains.
   An axis of moderate instability is forecast to be in place by
   afternoon from far northeast Colorado into far northern Kansas.
   Isolated thunderstorms are expected to form along and near the
   instability axis during the late afternoon. Although lapse rates
   will be very steep, warm air aloft and limited large-scale ascent
   will likely keep any severe threat marginal.

   ..Broyles.. 06/12/2024

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   NOTE: THE NEXT DAY 2 OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED BY 1730Z