Jun 25, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Tue Jun 25 17:23:56 UTC 2024 (20240625 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240625 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240625 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 108,259 46,694,722 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
MARGINAL 463,719 56,636,066 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240625 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 55,211 11,420,858 Pittsburgh, PA...Lexington-Fayette, KY...Allentown, PA...Reading, PA...Bethlehem, PA...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240625 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 108,371 46,683,205 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Washington, DC...Pittsburgh, PA...
5 % 465,473 57,484,399 Dallas, TX...Columbus, OH...Memphis, TN...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240625 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 423,277 77,285,872 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Dallas, TX...Memphis, TN...Baltimore, MD...
   SPC AC 251723

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1223 PM CDT Tue Jun 25 2024

   Valid 261200Z - 271200Z


   Scattered damaging winds are possible over parts of the Ohio Valley
   into the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast on Wednesday.

   ...OH Valley to Mid-Atlantic/Northeast...

   An upper trough will progress eastward on Wednesday from the
   Mid/Upper MS Valley to the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic. A seasonally
   moist airmass will be in place across much of the Midwest to the
   Mid-Atlantic where strong heating will support moderate to strong
   destabilization. Forcing for ascent associated with the
   eastward-advancing upper trough and one or more MCVs moving across
   the region will support scattered to numerous strong/severe
   thunderstorms through the period. 

   One cluster of strong/severe thunderstorms is expected to be focused
   from PA eastward into the NJ/southern NY vicinity ahead of a
   southward sagging cold front. Effective shear magnitudes around
   30-40 kt will support a few supercell and/or bowing structures.
   Steep low and midlevel lapse rates, with mixing to around 1 km,
   suggest damaging gusts and isolated large hail will be the main
   hazards with this activity. Another cluster of strong/severe storms
   is expected to develop over the higher terrain of eastern KY/WV and
   northern VA. Vertical shear will be weaker with southward extent,
   but deeper mixing with very steep lapse rates is noted in forecast
   soundings. Damaging gusts and isolated hail will also be possible
   with this activity. Some potential may exist for higher severe
   probabilities in subsequent outlooks for portions of the
   Mid-Atlantic/Northeast if an organized bowing structure can develop.
   However, confidence in this scenario is too low at this time for
   categorical upgrades.

   Additional storms are expected along the southward developing cold
   front during the late afternoon into evening closer to the OH River
   in southern IN and central KY. Weaker shear will limit longevity of
   more organized cells, but strong instability and steep lapse rates
   will still support localized strong gusts and marginal hail. 

   ...Ozarks/ArkLaTex into MS...

   Most forecast guidance, including various CAMs, are in good
   agreement that convection will be ongoing Wednesday morning across
   the Ozarks. There is more uncertainty regarding the evolution of
   this activity through the day. However, it seems likely that
   convection will either continue to develop south across parts of
   OK/northeast TX/AR/LA and MS. Southwesterly low-level winds will
   remain light, but vertically veering profiles with strengthening
   north/northwesterly flow above 700 mb will foster around 40 kt
   effective shear magnitudes across parts of OK/TX/AR/LA. Shear will
   be weaker with southeast extent, but strong storms may persist
   southward into central MS as well. A developing cold pool, coupled
   with strong instability and PW values approaching 2 inches, will
   support maintenance/re-intensification of morning activity as
   outflow propagates southward. This activity will mainly pose a risk
   for strong/damaging gusts, and the Marginal (level 1 of 5) risk has
   been extended southwestward with the Day 2 update. If current trends
   persist, portions of this area may need an upgrade to Slight (level
   2 of 5) risk in subsequent outlooks.

   ...Central High Plains...

   An upper ridge is forecast to be centered along the Rockies on
   Wednesday. However, forecast guidance depicts a weak shortwave
   impulse/vorticity maxima rotating through the ridge in the vicinity
   of the central Rockies and emerging into the High Plains during the
   afternoon/evening. Deep-layer flow will be somewhat weak, but
   vertically veering profiles suggest around 25-30 kt effective shear
   magnitudes will be possible. Steep midlevel lapse rates will support
   a corridor of 1000-2000 J/kg MLCAPE. This should aid in transient
   organized cells amid modest boundary-layer moisture. Isolated
   strong/severe gusts and large hail will be possible.

   ..Leitman.. 06/25/2024