Jun 29, 2024 0600 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Sat Jun 29 06:06:03 UTC 2024 (20240629 0600Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240629 0600Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240629 0600 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 172,636 55,871,025 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
MARGINAL 518,241 35,905,893 Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...Aurora, CO...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240629 0600 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
2 % 108,634 52,904,837 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240629 0600 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 162,446 55,826,223 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Washington, DC...
5 % 499,276 35,575,879 Charlotte, NC...Denver, CO...Virginia Beach, VA...Colorado Springs, CO...Raleigh, NC...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240629 0600 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
15 % 47,070 126,651 Dickinson, ND...Williston, ND...Miles City, MT...Glendive, MT...Sidney, MT...
5 % 404,496 59,848,920 New York, NY...Philadelphia, PA...Baltimore, MD...Boston, MA...Denver, CO...
   SPC AC 290606

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0106 AM CDT Sat Jun 29 2024

   Valid 301200Z - 011200Z


   Scattered damaging winds will be possible across parts of the
   Northeast and Mid-Atlantic States on Sunday. Hail and damaging winds
   may also occur from eastern Montana into western North Dakota.

   ...Northeast/Mid-Atlantic States to Carolinas...
   A positive-tilt upper-level trough will amplify over Ontario and
   Quebec toward the Lower Great Lakes and Northeast Sunday and Sunday
   night. A surface low will move from eastern Quebec to the Canadian
   Maritimes, as a trailing cold front advances southeastward across
   the Northeast/New England as well as the Appalachians, before
   exiting the coastal Northeast/Mid-Atlantic by Sunday night. Some
   potential warm-sector cloudiness and weak mid-level lapse rates may
   somewhat limit or delay pre-frontal destabilization. However,
   potentially moderate diurnal destabilization, in the presence of
   moderate deep-layer shear, should exist for storms capable of
   damaging winds and possibly some hail, mainly Sunday afternoon
   through early evening. 

   Removed from the stronger cyclonic flow aloft, greater
   destabilization is expected southward into the Carolinas within a
   very moist environment. Modest-strength west/northwesterly winds
   aloft could support some stronger cells/clusters capable of at least
   isolated wind damage.

   ...Montana and western Dakotas...
   A mid/upper-level trough will cross the northern Rockies on Sunday,
   reaching and influencing the northern High Plains by Sunday night.
   In response, a surface low is expected to deepen across southeast
   Montana and northeast Wyoming, with increasing low-level moisture
   north-northwestward into areas to east and north of the surface low,
   including parts of Montana and the western Dakotas.

   At least modest diurnal destabilization will be possible from
   southwest into central Montana, with moderate buoyancy potentially
   developing farther east into parts of eastern Montana and the
   western Dakotas. Storm development will be possible across
   western/central Montana during the afternoon. These storms may move
   eastward with time, with other isolated development possible by
   early evening into eastern Montana.

   Increasing deep-layer shear will support organized convection, and a
   few stronger clusters and/or supercells will be possible, with a
   threat of hail and severe gusts. An MCS may develop Sunday night and
   move into western/central North Dakota, aided by a nocturnally
   strengthening low-level jet. The severity of any MCS will be more
   uncertain with eastward extent, due to increasing low-level
   stability. However, some threat for severe gusts could spread across
   western and possibly central North Dakota.

   Storm development/coverage is more uncertain farther south, but with
   the environment expected to become conditionally favorable by late
   afternoon into the evening, a strong/severe storm or two will also
   be possible across eastern Wyoming into western South Dakota
   including the Black Hills vicinity.

   ...Colorado Front Range into the central High Plains...
   In the wake of a cold frontal passage, low-level moisture will
   stream westward into the Front Range vicinity and adjacent central
   High Plains, with the western extension of the boundary expected to
   lift northward as a warm front through the day. Moderate
   destabilization will be possible during the afternoon, with
   potential for at least isolated storm development. Mid-level winds
   will likely remain weak to modest, but sufficient veering with
   height could support organized multicellular clusters and perhaps a
   supercell or two, with a threat of hail and severe gusts.

   ...Southeast Arizona...
   Some showers/thunderstorms, or least outflow/cloud debris, could
   linger early in the day, but airmass recovery/destabilization is
   expected into the afternoon. Mid-level temperatures will be warm,
   but sufficient diurnally maximized instability could contribute to a
   few strong storms. The region will be reevaluated in subsequent
   outlooks for a potential inclusion of low wind-related severe

   ...South-central Great Plains to Tennessee Valley...
   A cold front is forecast to move into parts of the south-central
   Great Plains and Ozark vicinity Sunday morning, potentially
   accompanied and augmented by ongoing convection. Moderate to locally
   strong buoyancy may develop along/south the front during the
   afternoon, in areas that are not influenced by early-day convection.
   Mid-level flow will likely remain weak. Given the rather weakly
   sheared environment and uncertainty regarding the favored frontal
   corridor, severe probabilities will continue to be deferred.

   ..Guyer.. 06/29/2024