Jul 8, 2024 1730 UTC Day 2 Convective Outlook
Updated: Mon Jul 8 17:12:20 UTC 2024 (20240708 1730Z Day 2 shapefile | 20240708 1730Z Day 2 KML)
Probabilistic to Categorical Outlook Conversion Table
Categorical Graphic
20240708 1730 UTC Day 2 Outlook Graphic
Day 2 Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
SLIGHT 28,674 2,977,390 Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Owensboro, KY...New Albany, IN...Cape Girardeau, MO...
MARGINAL 117,183 25,089,677 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Boston, MA...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...
Probabilistic Tornado Graphic
20240708 1730 UTC Day 2 Tornado Probabilities Graphic
Probability of a tornado within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of EF2 - EF5 tornadoes within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Tornado Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 28,703 2,992,894 Louisville, KY...Evansville, IN...Owensboro, KY...New Albany, IN...Cape Girardeau, MO...
2 % 85,793 13,938,537 Indianapolis, IN...Columbus, OH...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
Probabilistic Damaging Wind Graphic
20240708 1730 UTC Day 2 Damaging Wind Probabilities Graphic
Probability of damaging thunderstorm winds or wind gusts of 50 knots or higher within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% of greater probability of wind gusts 65 knots or greater within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Wind Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 124,738 22,389,088 Boston, MA...Nashville, TN...Cincinnati, OH...Louisville, KY...Lexington-Fayette, KY...
Probabilistic Large Hail Graphic
20240708 1730 UTC Day 2 Large Hail Probabilities Graphic
Probability of hail 1" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Hatched Area: 10% or greater probability of hail 2" or larger within 25 miles of a point.
Day 2 Hail Risk Area (sq. mi.) Area Pop. Some Larger Population Centers in Risk Area
5 % 30,713 11,193,784 Boston, MA...Providence, RI...Worcester, MA...Springfield, MA...Hartford, CT...
   SPC AC 081712

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1212 PM CDT Mon Jul 08 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE LOWER
   AND MIDDLE OH VALLEY...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Isolated strong to severe storms may produce a few damaging gusts or
   tornadoes across portions of the Mid-South into the Ohio Valley
   tomorrow (Tuesday). A few instances of hail or strong wind gusts are
   also possible over portions of New England.

   ...Synopsis...
   Upper troughing is forecast to extend across the central CONUS early
   Tuesday morning, with the remnants of TC Beryl within the
   southeastern portion of this troughing over the Arklatex vicinity.
   Some modest eastward progression of this troughing is anticipated
   throughout the period while the remnants of Beryl track within the
   eastern periphery of the trough through the Mid MS and Lower/Mid OH
   Valleys. 

   Farther northeast, a shortwave trough is forecast to move quickly
   eastward across Quebec, with the southern periphery of this trough
   glancing the Northeast during the afternoon and evening. Farther
   west, upper ridging will begin the period extended from southern
   CA/Lower CO River Valley into the Pacific Northwest. This ridging
   will likely build throughout the period, extending over much of the
   western CONUS and into the Canadian Prairie Provinces by early
   Wednesday morning.

   ...Mid MS Valley into Lower/Middle OH Valley...
   Surface low associated with the remnants of TC Beryl will likely
   begin the period over southern/central AR before tracking
   northeastward throughout the day. This low is forecast to be near
   the confluence of the OH and MS rivers 00Z Wednesday and central IN
   by 12Z Wednesday. Tropical airmass accompanying this system will
   bring 70s dewpoints into the Mid MS and Lower/Middle OH Valleys just
   ahead of the surface low, contributing to destabilization and modest
   buoyancy despite widespread cloud cover.

   Thunderstorms are anticipated throughout the period along and ahead
   of this system, particularly within its northeastern quadrant where
   convergence along the warm front will augment lift. As is typical
   within tropical environments, the duration of strong updrafts will
   likely be transient/short-lived with a predominantly multicellular
   storm mode. However, strong low to mid-level flow will persist
   throughout the eastern periphery of Post-TC Beryl, contributing to
   relatively large curvature within the lowest 1 to 2 km of the
   hodograph. This low-level shear could support brief tornadogenesis
   within any deeper updrafts. Ambient low-level vorticity along the
   warm front could augment this low-level shear, perhaps increasing
   the tornado potential immediately along the front. Highest tornado
   threat is anticipated along the southern OH River vicinity (i.e.
   southern IL, southwest IN, and western KY) from 20-00Z before
   shifting more northeastward into more of southern IN and the
   Louisville vicinity from 00-04Z.

   ...Portions of New England...
   Strong heating will push afternoon temperatures in the mid 80s to
   low 90s. These temperatures amid upper 60s to low 70s dewpoints will
   result in modest buoyancy, despite relatively warm temperatures
   aloft and poor lapse rates. Glancing ascent attendant to shortwave
   trough moving through Quebec will likely result in widely scattered
   thunderstorm development. Enhanced mid-level flow (i.e. from 40 to
   50 kts at 500 mb) is expected to across the Northeast tomorrow,
   contributing to elongated, mostly straight hodographs and up to 40
   kts of deep-layer shear. These kinematic conditions should support
   multicells and perhaps even brief, transient supercell structures,
   with a few damaging gusts possible with the strongest storms. Some
   hail is also possible, particularly across southern ME.

   ..Mosier.. 07/08/2024

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