SPC AC 081710

   Day 2 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   1210 PM CDT Thu Aug 08 2024

   Valid 091200Z - 101200Z

   ...THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS EASTERN
   PA...NJ...AND THE NORTHERN DELMARVA PENINSULA...

   ...SUMMARY...
   There may be at least some continuing risk for damaging gusts
   tornadoes in advance of the remnant low of Debby. Greatest severe
   potential is expected from eastern Pennsylvania into New Jersey and
   the northern Delmarva Peninsula.

   ...Synopsis...
   A mid-latitude cyclone is forecast to begin the period over central
   Ontario before shifting gradually throughout the day. Moderate to
   strong flow is anticipated throughout the base of this cyclone,
   spreading from the Upper Midwest across the Great Lakes and OH
   Valley and into the Northeast as a shortwave trough progresses from
   the Upper Midwest across the Upper Great Lakes into southwest
   Quebec. Overall evolution of this cyclone and associated shortwave
   trough will interact with Tropical Cyclone Debby, which may be in
   its extratropical phase by early Friday morning. This interaction
   will result in an accelerated northeastward progression of Debby,
   taking it from its initial position near the WV/MD/VA border
   vicinity quickly northeastward through the Northeast and into the
   Upper St. Lawrence Valley by early Saturday.

   Farther west, dampened upper ridging will persist across the
   Southwest and southern Plains. A convectively generated,
   low-amplitude shortwave trough is forecast to move through the
   northern periphery of this ridging, from eastern CO into the
   Mid-South. Another low-amplitude shortwave trough may follow in the
   wake of the first, reaching the central KS/western OK by early
   Saturday morning. 

   ...Mid-Atlantic into the Northeast...
   Robust low to mid-level flow is forecast to extend throughout the
   eastern periphery of TC Debby, from eastern NC into southern ME,
   early Friday morning. This strong flow will persist throughout the
   day, gradually shifting northeastward with the parent system. The
   strongest low/mid-level flow (i.e. 50+ kt at 850mb) will remain in
   close proximity to the cyclone, spreading from far northeast
   VA/central MD early Friday into eastern PA/NJ by the afternoon and
   into southern New England by late Friday/early Saturday
    
   Widespread cloud cover and limited heating is anticipated across the
   region, but deep convection still appears possible amid the strong
   warm-air advection. Buoyancy will be limited, likely tempering the
   overall updraft strength within this convection. However, ample
   moisture will be in place, which should combine with the strong
   low-level shear to support some organized storm structures. Damaging
   gusts will be the greatest severe threat, but embedded circulations
   could be strong enough to produce brief tornadoes as well. 

   Highest severe potential is expected from eastern PA to the I-95
   corridor in NJ, where the timing of the system allows for the best
   overlap between the buoyancy/daytime heating and the low-level
   shear. Strong forcing could still result in some damaging gusts
   farther north into NY and western New England, despite very limited
   buoyancy. Buoyancy will be greater farther south across eastern
   VA/NC, but shear will be weaker, likely keeping the severe threat
   isolated. 

   ...Northeast NM/Southeast CO into TX Panhandle and Western OK...
   Scattered showers and thunderstorms will likely be ongoing across
   the TX Panhandle vicinity early Friday, with some potential that
   this activity will persist downstream into western OK throughout the
   day. Limited buoyancy and shear should keep the severe threat low. 

   Another round of thunderstorms is possible Friday afternoon,
   beginning in the Raton Mesa vicinity and then continuing
   eastward/southeastward through the evening and potentially
   overnight, maintained by a moderate low-level jet across west TX. As
   with the early morning storms, limited buoyancy and shear should
   keep the severe threat low.

   ..Mosier.. 08/08/2024

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