SPC AC 051959

   Day 1 Convective Outlook  
   NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
   0259 PM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025

   Valid 052000Z - 061200Z

   ...THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR NORTHERN
   MISSISSIPPI INTO WESTERN TENNESSEE...

   ...SUMMARY...
   Severe storms, capable of producing damaging wind gusts, large hail
   and several tornadoes are still expected from the Sabine River
   Valley northeastward into the Mid-South and lower Mississippi and
   Ohio Valleys. Strong tornadoes, very large hail, and severe wind
   gusts are all possible.

   ...20Z Update...
   The primary changes made to the 20Z Convective Outlook Update were
   to trim severe probabilities from the west to account for the
   passage of the ongoing QLCS over the Mid-South into the Lower MS
   Valley region. Severe hail may still accompany the stronger storms
   along southern extent of or immediately ahead of the QLCS.
   Otherwise, strong to severe surface gusts and tornadoes (a couple of
   which may be strong) may occur with embedded mesovortices and LEWPs
   within the QLCS, as well as with any storms ahead of the line. See
   the previous outlook (below) for more details.

   ..Squitieri.. 04/05/2025

   .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1140 AM CDT Sat Apr 05 2025/

   ...East TX/ArkLaTex to Lower Mississippi Valley...
   Severe storms continue to increase through late morning into midday
   especially across parts of Arkansas, with the upscale-growing
   MCS/bow echo near/northeast of the Little Rock area as of 1130 CDT.
   A 60 kt wind gust was recently measured at KLRF/North Little Rock.
   This bowing MCS should continue to favor the zone near/immediately
   north of the effective boundary that precedes it (roughly parallel
   to I-40), likely taking it into western Tennessee this afternoon,
   potentially near the Memphis metro vicinity. See Mesoscale
   Discussion 411 for additional details. A Moderate Risk upgrade has
   been introduced for this scenario, as well as potential
   semi-discrete warm-sector development later this afternoon to its
   south.

   Within the axis of a strong low-level jet (south-southwesterly 50-60
   kt across the ArkLaTex and ArkLaMiss), supercell longevity/tornado
   potential will be maximized with any diurnal warm-sector development
   that occurs away from (east-southeast of) the outflow-reinforced
   effective front, although the extent of that my tend to be somewhat
   curbed by persistent cloud cover and semi-mild mid-level
   temperatures (-9 or -10C at 500mb) into the warm sector.
   Additionally, deep-layer shear vectors will be largely parallel to
   the effective front regionally, suggestive of a mixed convective
   mode including HP supercells/smaller-scale bows in close proximity
   to the convectively modified effective front. The front will become
   more east/southeastward-progressive later this afternoon and tonight
   across east/southeast Texas, southern Arkansas, and Louisiana.
   Overall, some tornadoes are expected regionally, a few of which
   could be strong, aside from damaging winds and isolated large hail.

   ...Mid-South into the TN/OH Valleys...
   Farther north, the boundary will be less progressive throughout the
   morning/early afternoon, particularly north of a weak low currently
   over northeast Texas. The boundary will likely sharpen during this
   time, before then becoming more progressive once again as the
   convectively augmented shortwave trough currently moving into
   western Oklahoma progresses into the region. This will likely result
   in a bowing line segment with damaging gusts as the primary severe
   risk. However, given the strength of the low-level flow, some
   embedded tornado potential exists as well.

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