ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 220030
SPC AC 220027

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM ACROSS PARTS OF ERN LA THRU
THE SRN HALF OF MS AND SRN AL INTO THE WRN HALF OF THE FL
PANHANDLE.  THE MDT RISK IS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SW 7R4
30 WNW LFT 25 N ESF 45 ENE MLU 40 NNE JAN TCL 40 WNW AUO 30 NNE DHN
10 SE PFN.

SURROUNDING MUCH OF THE MDT...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO
THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSW LCH 35 WSW POE 35 ENE SHV 35 SSE
PBF 25 SSW MKL 35 S CKV 25 NW CSV 45 S TYS 55 NNE AYS 10 W CTY.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SSE DAB 20 S PIE
...CONT... 10 SSW PSX 50 SE BWD 30 NNE MWL 15 ENE DUA 45 SE FSM
JBR 10 SW OWB 15 NW HTS 20 SSW WAL.



LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES THAT CIRCULATION CENTER OF
MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW/ASSOCIATED VORT MAX IS LOCATED OVER CENTRAL TX.
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION HAS ENHANCED UVVS N OF WARM FRONTAL
BOUNDARY THAT IS NOW OVER EXTREME SRN LA EWD OVER THE NERN GULF OF
MEXICO.  THIS HAS BROUGHT WIDESPREAD THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ACROSS
THE SERN STATES AND HAS ALSO PLAYED A MAJOR ROLE IN INHIBITING
INSOLATION AND DESTABLIZATION OF AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION.  

LATEST SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW IS OVER THE SRN TX/LA BORDER AT
22/00Z AND WILL MOVE ENEWD NEXT SEVERAL HOURS INTO CENTRAL LA WHERE
CURRENT PRESSURE FALL CENTER IS LOCATED.  AT THIS TIME...DYNAMICS
WILL PLAY ROLE IN MOVING SURFACE LOW ALONG SINCE THERE IS VERY
LITTLE IN THE WAY OF PRESSURE RISES AT THIS TIME OVER TX.  RUC
MODEL ORIENTS MID/UPPER LEVEL LOW MORE NEUTRALLY TILTED
OVERNIGHT... AS DOES THE ETA...INDICATING THAT ACTIVITY WILL FORM
INTO A SQUALL LINE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS ACROSS SERN LA/SRN MS INTO
SWRN AL.

EVENING RAOB DATA SHOWS THAT LAPSE RATES ARE WEAK /6.0 TO 6.5C/KM/
OVER SERN LA.  IN FACT...LIX RAOB INDICATES AN ELEVATED WARM LAYER
ABOVE 960 MB WITH A SBCAPE OF NEARLY 1700 J/KG.  DEEP LAYER SHEAR
REMAINS STRONG WITH THE RAOB SHOWING AROUND 50 KT OF SHEAR AND
STORM RELATIVE HELICITY OF 450 M2/S2 USING A STORM MOTION OF
220/40. THUS... IT LOOKS THAT THE BEST TORNADO THREAT WILL BE IN
THE VICINITY OF THE WRM FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHICH EXTENDS FROM LCH E
ALONG I-10 THEN SEWED THRU THE NEW AREA.  ELSEWHERE IT LOOKS LIKE
MOSTLY A DAMAGING WIND EVENT THAT WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ASSOCIATION
WITH THE SQUALL LINE THE REMAINDER OF THE NIGHT. 
 
..MCCARTHY.. 02/22/03

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