ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 210048 SPC AC 210047 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 210100Z - 211200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE MEM 20 NNW DYR 20 SW OWB 30 ENE LUK 10 N CMH 10 ENE MFD 15 ESE CLE 20 NNE YNG 20 SSE YNG 40 WSW LOZ 40 NNW HSV 25 NNW MSL 30 E MEM 25 ENE MEM. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SE DRT 30 E AUS 35 SSE GGG 25 SSE HOT 20 ENE LIT 10 NW POF 30 N IND 45 N FWA 15 ENE LAN 15 ENE MBS ...CONT... 15 SSW MSS 25 E PSB 25 NE ROA 30 S SPA 15 E DHN 15 ESE PFN. ...TN VLY NWD TO UPPER OH VLY... LINE OF TSTMS FROM CLE-CMH-CVG TO JUST SOUTH OF EVV APPEARS TO BE GENERATING A SUFFICIENT COLD POOL TO ACCELERATE ESEWD MOVEMENT. 00 UTC ILN SOUNDING SHOWED A SIGNIFICANT DRY LAYER ABOVE THE SURFACE AND SEVERAL SMALL SCALE BOWS HAVE EVOLVED. LOW-MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW HAS ALSO BECOME MORE PARALLEL THIS EVENING. AS A RESULT...AN IMPRESSIVE BOW DEVELOPED INVOF SPRINGFIELD OH WITH 95 KT WIND GUST...AND THIS CONTINUES TO MOVE JUST NORTHEAST OF CMH AND WILL LIKELY CONTINUE TO POSE A DAMAGING WIND THREAT FOR ANOTHER HOUR OR SO. THE WHOLE LINE SHOULD CONTINUE TO SLOWLY SHIFT ESEWD INTO THE UPPER OH VLY AND INTO THE WRN SLOPES OF THE CNTRL APPALACHIAN MOUNTAINS BY 12 UTC. GIVEN LOSS OF HEATING AND CURRENT MINIMAL INSTABILITY DOWNSTREAM... ERN EXTENT OF SEVERE THREAT SHOULD BE INVOF OF THE OH RVR-CNTRL KY-MID TN. MOSTLY DAMAGING WINDS AND A LARGE HAIL THREAT WILL CONTINUE FOR A FEW MORE HOURS. ...WRN GULF COASTAL STATES... WEAK PERTURBATION IN SUB-TROPICAL FLOW HAS LARGELY MAINTAINED A FEW TSTM CLUSTERS FROM ERN TX INTO THE MID SOUTH. BRIEF INTENSIFICATION OF TSTMS MAY OCCUR FOR A COUPLE MORE HOURS AS TSTMS INTERACT WITH BOUNDARIES AND A MODERATELY UNSTABLE AIR MASS. A DAMAGING WIND GUST OR HAIL MAY OCCUR...BUT THE STRONGEST MIDLEVEL WIND FLOW AND MASS CONVERGENCE IS POINTED MORE INTO THE OH VLY/GREAT LAKES REGION. TSTMS SHOULD SHIFT EWD INTO PARTS OF THE CNTRL-ERN GULF COASTAL STATES OVERNIGHT...WITH THE SEVERE THREAT LIMITED TO ONLY ISOLD EVENTS. ..RACY.. 04/21/03 NNNN |