ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 030049
SPC AC 030042

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 030100Z - 031200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM JAX
15 SSE VLD TLH 35 NW PNS MCB ELD 10 SW HOT LIT MEM HSV RMG
20 W GSP HKY 10 WSW LYH 35 SSE CHO RIC 15 WSW ORF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
30 NNW BWD MWL DAL 10 WSW TYR 25 W LFK 60 NNE VCT HDO JCT
30 NNW BWD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 ENE CRP LRD
...CONT... 10 WSW DRT SJT PVW DHT TAD DEN DGW 10 NNW GCC SHR
40 NNE COD MQM BNO 25 NW MFR 20 SE EUG 10 SW LWS 15 SE GEG
20 NNW 63S ...CONT... 60 NNW DVL GFK FAR BKX OLU BIE TOP TBN EVV
LUK ZZV HLG CXY TTN ORH BOS ...CONT... 45 SSE FMY 35 SSE AGR ORL
GNV 40 NW CTY 40 SE TLH.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 WSW ACV RBL
45 N FAT DAG 20 S LGB.

...SOUTHEAST STATES...
DIVERGENCE ALOFT...IN STRONGLY DIFLUENT UPPER FLOW REGIME BETWEEN
BELT OF WESTERLIES ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...AND ANOTHER BELT
EXTENDING FROM THE LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY INTO TROUGH OFF THE
SOUTH ATLANTIC COAST...HAS SUPPORTED EXTENSIVE ONGOING CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE EASTERN GULF STATES.  PEAK AFTERNOON HEATING
APPEARS TO HAVE BEEN ANOTHER PRIMARY MECHANISM SUPPORTING ACTIVITY
...AND WITH ONSET OF RADIATIONAL SURFACE COOLING...A GRADUAL
WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED THIS EVENING.  ISOLATED STRONGER CELLS
MAY STILL PRODUCE SOME LARGE HAIL...BUT PRIMARY THREAT NOW APPEARS
TO BE POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS ON LEADING EDGE OF OUTFLOWS.

EVENING SOUNDINGS INDICATE ENVIRONMENT REMAINS MOIST AND
POTENTIALLY VERY UNSTABLE UPSTREAM...ACROSS CENTRAL MISSISSIPPI
INTO SOUTHERN ARKANSAS...WHERE BAND OF CONFLUENT LOW-LEVEL FLOW MAY
PROVIDE FOCUS FOR NEW/INTENSIFYING CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT LATER
THIS EVENING/OVERNIGHT.  ACTIVITY LIKELY WILL BECOME BASED ABOVE
STABILIZING BOUNDARY LAYER...BUT LOW-LEVEL THERMODYNAMIC
ENVIRONMENT STILL APPEARS SUPPORTIVE OF DAMAGING WIND GUSTS. 
RELATIVELY STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE SUPPORTING CAPE IN EXCESS OF 3000
J/KG...SO LARGE HAIL APPEARS LIKELY DESPITE RATHER WEAK VERTICAL
SHEAR PROFILES.

...CENTRAL TEXAS...
CLUSTER OF INTENSE CONVECTIVE CELLS PERSISTS TO THE SOUTH OF FORT
WORTH...BUT WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING...MID-LEVEL CAP IS ALREADY
BEGINNING TO SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT.  IN ENVIRONMENT WITH STRONG
CONVECTIVE INSTABILITY...AS EVIDENT IN LATEST SOUNDING FROM FORT
WORTH...THERE STILL APPEARS TO BE POTENTIAL FOR EVOLUTION OF
SURFACE MESO HIGH/COLD POOL.  HOWEVER...AS MID-LEVEL CAP
STRENGTHENS WITH SLOWLY AMPLIFYING CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS SHORT
WAVE RIDGE...STORMS SHOULD WEAKEN BY LATE EVENING.

...CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS...
DESPITE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION REGIME FROM THE RED
RIVER VALLEY INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS...INCREASING CAP
...BENEATH SHORT WAVE RIDGE MIGRATING OUT OF THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN
ROCKIES INTO THE PLAINS...SHOULD LIMIT EXTENT OF CONVECTIVE
DEVELOPMENT.  BEST POTENTIAL FOR STORMS APPEARS TO BE AT CREST OF
SLOWLY AMPLIFYING RIDGE ACROSS NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS/SOUTH CENTRAL
NEBRASKA...WHERE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN ABOVE BOUNDARY LAYER MAY
CONTRIBUTE TO CAPE OF 500 TO 1000 J/KG.  THOUGH STRONG VEERING OF
WINDS WITH HEIGHT WILL PROVIDE MODERATELY SHEARED ENVIRONMENT...
WEAKNESS OF CAPE IS EXPECTED TO MINIMIZE LARGE HAIL THREAT.
 
..KERR.. 05/03/03

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