ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 050056 SPC AC 050056 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 050100Z - 051200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM FST 40 N MRF ROW 70 ENE 4CR LVS RTN 45 NNW CAO EHA 35 S LBL CSM 15 SSE LTS 50 WNW ABI MAF 35 ENE P07 15 ESE P07 FST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 S FHU TUS 65 N TUS 55 SW SOW PRC 20 ESE DAG 20 W NID 40 NNE FAT DRA SGU 10 NE U17 CNY 25 W VEL RKS 50 NNW CPR SHR 50 E BIL LWT 35 NNE HVR ...CONT... 30 E MQT 20 NNE AUW 30 NNE LNR 25 WNW MMO 25 SSW PIA 20 WSW BRL 20 ESE DSM 55 ENE OMA 30 NW FNB P28 PNC TUL PGO TXK 10 S SHV ESF 30 SE MCB MOB MAI MGR 30 SE CAE FAY GSB RDU HKY 30 NW HKY PSK LBE ERI ...CONT... 10 W MSS MPV 35 WSW BHB ...CONT... 10 WSW GLS HOU AUS JCT DRT. ...SOUTHERN PLAINS... EVOLUTION OF NOCTURNAL MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM APPEARS TO BE UNDERWAY ACROSS PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL NEW MEXICO AND THE TEXAS PANHANDLE. 30 TO 40 KT SOUTHERLY LOW-LEVEL JET DEVELOPING ACROSS WEST TEXAS NEXT COUPLE OF HOURS WILL FOCUS CONVERGENCE AND WARM ADVECTION ALONG LOW-LEVEL BAROCLINIC ZONE NEAR/NORTH THROUGH EAST OF LUBBOCK. MODELS SUGGEST LARGE-SCALE UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION FIELD ACROSS THIS REGION WILL BECOME ENHANCED BY INCREASINGLY DIVERGENT UPPER FLOW...AHEAD OF SHORT WAVE TROUGH DIGGING ACROSS THE GREAT BASIN. LATEST SATELLITE IMAGERY SUPPORTS THIS...AND RATHER LARGE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER APPEARS LIKELY BY 06Z IN MOIST ENVIRONMENT WITH MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE IN EXCESS OF 2000 J/KG. MODERATELY STRONG SHEAR NEAR BAROCLINIC ZONE...VICINITY OF NARROW BELT OF STRONGER NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE TEXAS PANHANDLE AND NORTHWEST TEXAS...WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ADDITIONAL SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL WILL BECOME PRIMARY SEVERE THREAT AS BOUNDARY LAYER COOLS WITH LOSS OF DAYTIME HEATING. AS SURFACE COLD POOL/MESO HIGH EVOLVES...DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE POSSIBLE ALONG ASSOCIATED GUST FRONT WHICH MAY ADVANCE INTO THE DALLAS/FORTH WORTH/ABILENE AND BIG SPRING AREAS OVERNIGHT. ...MID ATLANTIC STATES... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS HAVE DEVELOPED ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES OF THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. ADDITIONAL VIGOROUS CONVECTION IS OCCURRING NEAR INTERSTATE 95 ACROSS PARTS OF SOUTHERN VIRGINIA/NORTHERN NORTH CAROLINA...AHEAD OF WEAK SHORT WAVE/LOBE OF CYCLONIC VORTICITY ROTATING AROUND CLOSED LOW OVER THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY. STORMS ARE EMBEDDED WITHIN VERY MOIST AIR MASS WITH DEW POINTS NEAR 70F...AND POINT FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST MEAN MIXED LAYER CAPE AROUND 1500 J/KG. APPROACHING MID-LEVEL JET IS ENHANCING VERTICAL SHEAR PROFILES SUFFICIENTLY FOR AT LEAST BRIEF UPDRAFT ROTATION IN MORE INTENSE CELLS...BUT WITH ONSET OF MID- LEVEL SUBSIDENCE IN WAKE OF SHORT TROUGH...CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL IS EXPECTED TO DIMINISH WITHIN NEXT FEW HOURS. ..KERR.. 06/05/03 NNNN |