ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 170107 SPC AC 170107 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 170100Z - 171200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 SE HVR 80 NE LWT 60 S GGW 25 SW GDV 30 NNE 4BQ 45 W 4BQ 30 ENE BIL 30 E 3HT 35 NNW 3HT 55 ENE GTF 45 SE HVR. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 WNW ANJ 50 NNW GRB 35 NNW RST 30 S MCW 20 WSW BRL 35 NNE COU 15 W MKC 25 ENE OLU 25 WNW YKN 60 N ATY 40 SSW BJI 30 E INL. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM OXR 55 ESE FAT 30 ENE SCK 45 W TVL 25 ESE RNO 60 NW TPH 55 ENE U31 35 N DPG 35 NNE EVW 35 SSE JAC 35 SSW WEY 50 S 27U 30 NW BOI 25 SSW BKE 40 ESE PDT 25 E LWS 50 ENE GEG 40 NE 63S ...CONT... 20 ENE MBS 30 NNE CGX DEC 20 W VIH CNU 35 NW HUT 55 WNW GCK 50 ENE LVS 45 N ROW 40 WSW ABI 10 NNW ESF 25 N JAN 20 SSW MEM 45 SW CSV 10 E HSS 10 SW CLT 30 NNE RDU 35 SE CHO 20 S WAL. ...UPPER/MID MS VALLEY AREA... WILL LEAVE A CONDITIONAL SLIGHT RISK FOR POSSIBILITY OF ADDITIONAL STORMS DEVELOPING EITHER ALONG FRONT OR IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION AHEAD OF FRONT FROM NRN/CNTRL MN EWD INTO NRN WI WHERE CAP HAS WEAKENED. HOWEVER...CONFIDENCE THAT SURFACE BASED STORMS CAN DEVELOP ALONG FRONT IS NOT PARTICULARLY HIGH SINCE CAP SHOULD STRENGTHEN FURTHER WITH LOSS OF HEATING. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS WITH ANY DEEP CONVECTION THAT DEVELOPS. ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND HAIL SHOULD BE THE MAIN THREATS. OTHER ELEVATED STORMS MAY BE POSSIBLE FARTHER S FROM ERN NEB THROUGH PARTS OF IA LATER TONIGHT IN ZONE OF WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF 40 KT SWLY LOW LEVEL JET. SHEAR PROFILES THOUGH THE CONVECTIVE LAYER SUPPORT UPDRAFT ROTATION WITH ISOLATED LARGE HAIL THE MAIN THREAT. ...MT... SCATTERED STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE DEVELOPING OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN THIS EVENING IN ZONE OF MOIST ELY UPSLOPE FLOW. STORMS WILL INTENSIFY AS THEY SPREAD EWD OFF THE HIGHER TERRAIN AND INTO THE MOIST/INSTABILITY AXIS. HIGH BASED SUPERCELLS WITH ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND APPEARS TO BE THE MAIN THREAT. ..DIAL.. 07/17/03 NNNN |