ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 240051 SPC AC 240049 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 240100Z - 241200Z NO SVR TSTM AREAS FCST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W RRT 35 WNW FAR 55 NW ABR 40 S Y22 20 E SHR 30 NNW JAC PIH 30 SW MLD 25 SW EVW 40 SSE RKS 45 W LAR 40 ENE CYS 30 SE SNY 30 NW GLD 10 WNW EHA 40 SW AMA 60 ENE HOB 50 NW DRT ...CONT... 50 ESE YUM 10 SW BLH 30 S DAG 45 NNW BFL 10 NE SCK 30 SSW RBL 45 WSW MHS 15 SW MFR 55 ESE EUG 15 NNW PDT 40 SW S06 40 N 3DU 50 NNW LWT 60 W GGW 55 NNE GGW. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE VCT 50 S AUS 25 NE AUS 40 ESE ACT 45 SE GGG 25 ENE HEZ 50 WSW SEM 35 WNW AUO 35 S RMG 45 W CHA 50 SW CKV 25 ESE MDH 15 SSW MTO 35 NW LAF 25 S AZO 15 SSW DTW ...CONT... 50 NW 3B1 35 S HUL. ...SWRN U.S. AND GREAT BASIN... SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS STRONG THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPED BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE THIS AFTERNOON DUE TO INTENSE BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING/STEEP LOW-MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. 00Z SOUNDINGS BENEATH THE UPPER RIDGE INDICATE BOUNDARY LAYER DEEPENED IN MANY PLACES TO NEAR 500MB...YIELDING INVERTED-V PROFILES WITH REASONABLE PRECIPITABLE WATER...IN EXCESS OF 1 INCH AT SEVERAL LOCATIONS. MUCH OF THE 4- CORNERS REGION HAS STABILIZED DUE TO EARLIER CONVECTION...BUT POCKETS OF YET-TO-BE OVERTURNED INSTABILITY EXIST ACROSS SERN NM/FAR WEST TX...SERN AZ...AND PORTIONS OF THE GREAT BASIN FROM NWRN NV/NERN CA INTO SERN ORE. THESE REGIONS HAVE SEVERAL CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS THAT SHOULD OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT FEW HOURS PROPAGATE ABOUT AND DESTROY ANY MEANINGFUL AIRMASS THAT IS SUPPORTING ONGOING ACTIVITY. ISOLATED STRONG TO LOCALLY SEVERE WIND GUSTS...OR PERHAPS A FEW MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL REPORTS MAY... ACCOMPANY THE STRONGEST ACTIVITY THIS EVENING. LATE TONIGHT...LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION MAY PROVE ADEQUATE IN GENERATING ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE NRN DAKOTAS...ALTHOUGH MOST ACTIVITY SHOULD REMAIN ACROSS SASKATCHEWAN AND MANITOBA. THIS MID LEVEL CONVECTION SHOULD STRUGGLE TO OBTAIN ORGANIZED INTENSITY AND THUS PROBABILITY FOR SEVERE APPEARS LOW ATTM. ..DARROW.. 07/24/03 NNNN |