ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 050120
SPC AC 050120

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK RESENT 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0820 PM CDT MON AUG 04 2003

VALID 050100Z - 051200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 ENE
SVE 20 ENE RBL 35 E EKA 10 NE CEC 35 ENE OTH 35 SE SLE 30 S DLS 35
SSW PDT 30 SSE BKE 60 SW BOI 45 NW WMC 20 ENE SVE

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 NNE
ROC 35 WNW IPT 20 SSW MRB LYH 20 S CLT 45 W AGS 35 WSW ABY 20 WSW
DHN 30 NNW CEW 70 SW SEM 30 NNE JAN 20 SW PBF 25 WSW MLC 15 SSW FSI
30 W LTS 50 W CSM 35 SSW HLC 45 SSW ANW 50 NW PIR 20 NNW MBG 45 NE
MBG 35 NW ABR 30 N HON 35 SSW OLU 35 ENE CNK 40 SW OJC 20 NNW TBN 15
NNW CGI 30 W BNA 30 SW CSV 20 NW TYS 20 SE JKL 20 E HTS 35 W HLG 40
WSW ERI

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE DMN 50 SE GNT
10 SSW DRO 30 SSW CNY 25 SSE ELY 40 W TPH 30 W TVL 40 SSW EKA
...CONT... 40 S AST 50 W YKM 30 N ALW 65 SE S80 30 WNW MQM WEY 50 NW
COD 35 W BIL 15 SW LWT 45 ENE CTB ...CONT... 35 ESE INL 10 WSW BRD
15 N SPW 25 NNW LWD 30 NE COU BLV 10 ESE MTO 20 ESE MKE 30 SE CMX
...CONT... 15 ESE 7R4 25 S ESF 25 NNE SHV 15 SSW DUA 65 N ABI 35 WNW
BGS 25 W FST 80 SSE MRF

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF THE CNTRL GREAT
PLAINS...MID-MS VALLEY...SERN US AND APPALACHIAN MTNS....

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS PORTIONS OF NRN CA...ORE AND
NWRN NV....

...NRN AND CNTRL PLAINS...
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A CORRIDOR OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXISTING
ACROSS CNTRL NEB AND CNTRL SD. A BROKEN LINE OF CONVECTION HAS
DEVELOPED ALONG THE ERN EDGE OF THE INSTABILITY AXIS ACROSS SD IN A
MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ENVIRONMENT. THE CONVECTION HAS FORMED
ALONG A LEE TROUGH WITH STRONG LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE IN RESPONSE TO
A SHORTWAVE TROUGH EVIDENT ON WV IMAGERY MOVING ACROSS THE WRN
DAKOTAS...REF MCD 2084. ADDITIONAL CONVECTION MAY OCCUR LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS CNTRL NEB AS LARGE-SCALE FORCING INCREASES AHEAD OF
THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A LINEAR MCS DEVELOPMENT MAY OCCUR THIS
EVENING AS THE CONVECTION MOVES EWD INTO THE HIGHER SFC DEWPOINTS.
OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS A NARROW BAND OF MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
EXISTING ACROSS CNTRL SD AND CNTRL NEB SUGGESTING A THREAT FOR
ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELL STORMS WILL EXIST. CONVECTION WILL BE
HIGH BASED CONSIDERING THE LARGE SFC TEMP-DEWPOINT SPREADS. INVERTED
V PROFILES AND STEEP LAPSE RATES SUGGEST A THREAT FOR ISOLATED
DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND LARGE HAIL WILL EXIST AT LEAST FOR THE NEXT
FEW HOURS.

...SRN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY...
CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG A STATIONARY FRONTAL BOUNDARY ORIENTED
FROM W TO E ACROSS SERN KS AND SRN MO. VERY UNSTABLE AIR IS PRESENT
ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE BOUNDARY. A VORT MAX SHOWN BY THE 00Z RUC
OVER WRN MO WILL PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT THIS EVENING. MCS DEVELOPMENT APPEARS LIKELY
OVERNIGHT AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER WRN KS MOVES
INTO THE MID-MS VALLEY. A BAND OF STRONG MID-LEVEL FLOW CURRENTLY
EXISTS ACROSS SRN KS...MO AND NRN AR WITH ABOUT 45 KT AT 500 MB.
THIS COMBINED WITH AN INCREASING LOW-LEVEL JET WILL CREATE A
FAVORABLE WIND ENVIRONMENT FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS. ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY IN BACKED SFC FLOW ALONG AND
SOUTH OF THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY WHERE THE GREATEST INSTABILITY EXISTS.
AS THE MCS GETS GOING LATE THIS EVENING...MORE WIDESPREAD WIND
DAMAGE AND/OR LARGE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE ESPECIALLY ALONG THE AXIS
OF VERY UNSTABLE AIR FROM FAR NERN OK EXTENDING EWD ACROSS NRN AR
AND SRN MO.

...SERN US/APPALACHIAN MTNS...
AN AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY EXTENDS NWD FROM MS AND AL INTO THE
CNTRL APPALACHIAN MTNS. FARTHER N ACROSS ERN OH AND WRN
PA...MARGINAL INSTABILITY EXISTS. CONVECTION IS ONGOING ALONG A
CORRIDOR OF STRONG LARGE-SCALE ASCENT ASSOCIATED WITH A LARGE
UPPER-TROUGH ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES. DEEP LAYER SHEAR ACROSS THE
REGION IS AROUND 30 KT SUGGESTING A FEW ORGANIZED SEVERE MULTICELLS
WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS EVENING BEFORE SFC TEMPS COOL AND INSTABILITY
WEAKENS. HAIL WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE NRN AND CNTRL
APPALACHIAN MTNS CLOSER TO THE UPPER-LOW WHERE COOLER AIR ALOFT
EXISTS. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE WILL BE MOST LIKELY ACROSS THE SRN
APPALACHIAN MTNS SWD TO AL AND GA WHERE SFC DEWPOINTS ARE IN THE
UPPER 60S TO AROUND 70 F.

...NRN CA/ORE/NW NV...
VIGOROUS SHORTWAVE TROUGH OFF THE NRN CA COAST WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE LARGE-SCALE SUPPORT FOR CONTINUED CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT
THIS EVENING. SCATTERED STRONG CONVECTION IS CURRENTLY ONGOING IN SW
FLOW ALOFT ACROSS THE PACIFIC NW WHERE MARGINAL INSTABILITY IS
PRESENT. OBJECTIVE ANALYSIS SHOWS STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR IN PLACE
WITH 30 TO 40 KT OF 0-6 KM SHEAR ACROSS THE REGION. THIS SUGGESTS A
THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED ORGANIZED SEVERE STORMS WITH A FEW
SMALL SUPERCELLS POSSIBLE. VERY STEEP LAPSE RATES AROUND 8.5 C/KM
WILL MAKE HAIL POSSIBLE. ISOLATED WIND DAMAGE MAY ALSO OCCUR
ESPECIALLY WITH CELLS THAT BECOME ROOTED IN LOCALIZED AREAS OF
GREATER INSTABILITY.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 08/05/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$