ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 110047 SPC AC 110047 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0747 PM CDT SUN AUG 10 2003 VALID 110100Z - 111200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 SW TUS 65 ESE PHX 60 NE PHX 50 N IGM 50 WSW SGU 45 SSE ELY 20 ENE U31 15 WSW EKO 15 ENE TWF 30 SSE HLN 20 W GTF 15 SSE CTB 40 WNW S06 25 ESE 63S 20 SSE 4OM 40 WSW EAT 30 NNE SEA 20 ENE BLI ...CONT... 35 NNE HVR 75 ESE HVR 80 NW MLS 50 WNW 4BQ 35 SW REJ 25 NNW BFF 30 NNW IML 30 NW BBW 45 SW YKN 30 WSW FSD 20 NNE ATY 20 SSW GFK 55 W RRT ...CONT... 15 SSE ANJ 35 WNW MBL 25 S MKE 35 NW BRL 25 SW UIN 15 ESE TBN 35 ENE LIT 20 SE GLH 25 S BTR 15 E MSY 30 WNW MOB 65 NE MOB 10 SSE BHM 20 NE HOP 35 ESE MVN 30 NW DNV 30 N LAF 35 NNE DAY 30 SW CAK 40 NNW YNG GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 NW ABI 45 SE LBB 50 NE HOB 30 W HOB 35 SW INK 45 S MAF 10 NW SJT 20 SW ABI 65 NW ABI ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...LWR MO VLY INTO ERN KS... NEXT IN A SERIES OF UPPER LEVEL IMPULSES ROTATING AROUND BACKSIDE OF ERN LONGWAVE TROUGH APPEARS TO BE DIVING SWD THROUGH ERN DAKS INTO NERN NEB ATTM. FORCING FOR LARGE SCALE ASCENT WITHIN EXIT REGION OF THIS JET HAS BEEN ENHANCING TSTM CLUSTERS ACROSS ERN NEB AND WRN IA RECENTLY. THERE DOES NOT SEEM TO BE MUCH IN THE WAY OF THETA-E ADVECTION TO MAINTAIN A STRONG MCS...BUT PRIND THAT AT LEAST WEAK DCVA WILL SUPPORT A LOOSELY ORGANIZED MCS OVERNIGHT. THE STORMS SHOULD MOVE SWD ACROSS WRN MO AND ERN KS BY 12 UTC. 00 UTC OAX SOUNDING SHOWS AROUND 1600 J/KG MLCAPE AND 7.1 C/KM H7-H5 LAPSE RATES AND SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR STRONG-SEVERE MULTICELL CLUSTERS. WHILE HAIL MAY OCCUR THIS EVENING WITH THE STRONGER CELLS...MAINLY ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE THREAT OVERNIGHT...ENOUGH FOR A 5% PROBABILITY OF SEVERE WIND/HAIL. ...NCNTRL/NERN TX INTO ARKLATEX REGION... WEAK MIDLEVEL SHORTWAVE TROUGH EMBEDDED WITHIN NLY FLOW ALOFT IS SUPPORTING TSTM CLUSTER MOVING INTO THE RED RVR VLY ATTM. AS OUTFLOW MOVES SWD...IT IS LIKELY TO FOCUS ADDITIONAL TSTMS THROUGH THE NIGHT IN NCNTRL/NERN TX AND THE ARKLATEX REGION. THERE COULD BE ISOLD DAMAGING WINDS OR HAIL WITH THE STRONGER STORMS...THOUGH RISK IS LOW ENOUGH TO PRECLUDE A CATEGORICAL SLGT. ...SRN ROCKIES INTO SERN AZ... CLUSTERS OF STORMS CONTINUE TO MOVE SWWD ACROSS NM AND THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ. A FEW TSTMS MAY PRODUCE A SEVERE WIND GUSTS THIS EVENING WITHIN DEEPLY MIXED ENVIRONMENT...BEFORE STORMS WEAKEN LATER THIS EVENING. ..RACY.. 08/11/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |