ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 190100 SPC AC 190100 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0800 PM CDT MON AUG 18 2003 VALID 190100Z - 191200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 N DVL 25 NE DVL 40 SE DVL 20 WSW JMS 35 N REJ 55 SSE GDV 25 SSE SDY 45 N MOT 55 N DVL THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 WSW INL 20 NNE HIB 40 E MSP 30 NNE STJ 25 SE SLN 50 S RSL 15 NE GCK 25 W GLD 25 WSW IML 15 ESE LBF 25 NW OMA 20 WNW OTG 55 SSW BJI 50 WSW INL GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 SSW PSX 35 ENE SAT 35 SSE BWD 35 ESE BWD 25 NNE ACT 45 NW LFK 55 NW ESF 10 W MLU 25 SE PBF 15 WSW MEM 35 N TUP 20 SSE BHM 50 NE ABY 45 NW SAV HKY 30 NNW LYH 10 E ORF GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 N ANJ 30 NE GRB 25 SSE DBQ 10 WNW COU 30 S SZL 35 SW OJC 35 W EMP 15 NE GAG 40 SSW CVS 20 ESE CNM 45 SSW P07 ...CONT... 85 S GBN 35 S IGM CDC MTJ ASE CAG RKS 10 WSW LND 40 WSW GCC 25 W GDV 60 NNE ISN ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PARTS OF ND... ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NRN KS / SRN NEB / WRN IA NWD INTO NRN MN... ...ND... THUNDERSTORMS CONTINUE ACROSS SWRN ND NEAR AND JUST W OF UPPER VORT MAX CENTER WHICH CONTINUES MOVING SLOWLY NWD. A WSW-ENE AXIS OF MODERATE INSTABILITY IS INDICATED ACROSS WRN AND N CENTRAL ND... WHERE UPPER 60S DEWPOINTS HAVE BEEN ADVECTED CYCLONICALLY SWWD AROUND SURFACE LOW. DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE INVOF SURFACE LOW WILL LIKELY ALLOW STORMS TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD REMAINS FAIRLY WEAK ACROSS THIS REGION... WHICH SUGGESTS THAT STORMS SHOULD REMAIN DISORGANIZED FOR THE MOST PART. HOWEVER...PRESENCE OF SURFACE LOW AND ASSOCIATED UPPER VORT MAX MAY ALLOW A FEW PERSISTENT / ORGANIZED UPDRAFTS AND ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / MARGINALLY-SEVERE HAIL. ...MN / WRN IA / SRN NEB / NRN KS... DEVELOPING SSWLY LOW-LEVEL JET AND ASSOCIATED WARM ADVECTION ALONG WITH MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS THIS REGION SUGGEST THAT CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL LIKELY CONTINUE THROUGH MUCH OF THE PERIOD. DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD IS GENERALLY MARGINAL...BUT LIKELY SUFFICIENT TO ALLOW A FEW SEVERE STORMS / STORM CLUSTERS TO PERSIST THROUGH THE EVENING AND INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS...WITH ASSOCIATED THREAT FOR LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL. ..GOSS.. 08/19/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |