ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 220044
SPC AC 220044

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0744 PM CDT SUN SEP 21 2003

VALID 220100Z - 221200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSW
GPT 20 WSW LUL 25 NNW JAN 30 E GWO 20 N CBM TCL SEM 50 NNW CEW 25
SSW CEW.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 NE GLS 45 WSW POE
45 N POE MLU 45 ENE ELD TXK 25 E DAL 55 NE ABI 20 W SPS 25 ENE SPS
40 S MLC 10 WNW FYV 25 NNE COU 35 ESE BRL 20 SSW LNR 45 S LSE 25 SSE
MCW 35 W DSM 35 NNW MHK 20 NE GLD 20 NNW AKO 25 ESE 4BQ 55 N ISN
...CONT... 80 NW CMX 30 N MBS 25 SSE DTW 30 N CLE 10 WSW BUF 30 NNW
BUF 50 WSW ART 25 WNW ITH 25 NNW IPT 40 ENE EKN 30 S 5I3 35 S TYS 60
SSW AGS 15 NE SSI.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS CENTRAL GULF COAST
REGION...

...CENTRAL GULF COAST REGION...
WIDESPREAD RAIN AND EMBEDDED THUNDERSTORMS PERSIST ACROSS THE LOWER
MS VALLEY / GULF COAST STATES / TN VALLEY REGION ATTM. THIS
PRECIPITATION IS OCCURRING IN A REGION OF LOW-LEVEL WARM ADVECTION
INVOF INVERTED SURFACE TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE TX COAST NEWD INTO
THE TN VALLEY. 

ALTHOUGH INSTABILITY REMAINS LIMITED DUE TO WIDESPREAD
RAIN...INCREASINGLY-STRONG LOW-LEVEL SHEAR IS EXPECTED AS LOW-LEVEL
JET INTENSIFIES THIS EVENING.  ALTHOUGH OVERALL THREAT REMAINS
LOW...AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL REMAIN POSSIBLE ACROSS THIS REGION AT
LEAST THROUGH THIS EVENING GIVEN FAVORABLE COMBINATION OF LOW-LEVEL
SHEAR AND VERY MOIST LOW-LEVEL AIRMASS AND THUS LOW CLOUD BASES. 

...THE OZARKS REGION INTO NWRN IL...
MARGINAL INSTABILITY ALONG AND AHEAD OF ONGOING CONVECTIVE LINE
DECREASES WITH EWD EXTENT...WHICH SUGGESTS THAT CONVECTION SHOULD
CONTINUE TO WEAKEN AS IT MOVES EWD.  ALTHOUGH SUFFICIENT DEEP-LAYER
SHEAR EXISTS ACROSS THIS REGION FOR ORGANIZED STORMS...DECREASING
INSTABILITY SUGGESTS THAT ANY REMAINING SEVERE THREAT SHOULD
CONTINUE TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS.

..GOSS.. 09/22/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$