ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 100614 SPC AC 100613 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 101200Z - 111200Z THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 WNW LUK 20 ENE OWB 10 SW DYR 10 WSW PBF 25 WSW HOT FSM 45 NW SGF 50 S P35 20 ESE RFD 25 S AZO 35 E FWA 20 WNW LUK. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 SW BUF IPT 20 ESE NEL ...CONT... 25 ESE ILM 30 SW GSO 25 WSW TYS 15 ENE JAN 50 NNW BPT 35 NNW NIR 30 W HDO 40 N JCT 50 NW MWL 25 E PNC 20 W TOP 15 ENE DSM 20 SSW VOK 45 NNW MBL 25 NE OSC. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 NNW FCA 35 ENE BTM 15 ESE WRL 20 SE GRI 25 SW FOD 25 WNW LSE 15 NNE MQT ...CONT... 25 NE ROC 15 SE ISP ...CONT... 35 ENE CRE 30 ESE CLT SPA 60 NNW AHN 45 ESE MEI 20 ENE BPT 15 E CRP ...CONT... 25 NW DRT 45 NNE ABI 40 NE CSM 30 NNE DHT 10 E ALS 50 WNW MLF 35 SSE U31 30 S SVE 35 WSW MHS 25 SSW SLE 50 ENE BLI. ...A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER DAY POSSIBLE SATURDAY FROM ERN PARTS OF THE SRN PLAINS EWD INTO THE MID MS VALLEY AND PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S.... ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED 100+ KT UPPER JET NOW OVER THE SWRN U.S. WILL CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS SATURDAY AND INTO THE MID MS-OH VALLEYS SATURDAY EVENING AND NIGHT. IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING DIVERGENCE ACCOMPANYING THE UPPER JET...SURFACE LOW IS FORECAST TO DEEPEN OVER THE MID MS VALLEY BY TOMORROW EVENING AND LIFT NEWD TOWARD THE GREAT LAKES TOMORROW NIGHT. IN THE PROCESS A COLD FRONT WILL SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE SRN PLAINS AND MERGE WITH THE DRYLINE...THEN CONTINUE EWD THROUGH THE MID MS VALLEY AND SERN U.S. SATURDAY EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. ...SRN PLAINS-MID MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S... CLUSTERS OF STORMS WILL LIKELY BE IN PROGRESS FROM PARTS OF THE OH VALLEY EWD INTO THE MID ATLANTIC REGION ACCOMPANIED BY THREAT FOR HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND. THIS ACTIVITY SHOULD LIFT NEWD DURING THE DAY ALLOWING THE WARM SECTOR TO BEGIN TO DESTABILIZE FROM THE SW. RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE ALREADY EXISTS IN A LARGE REGION FROM THE SRN PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE SERN U.S. AND OH VALLEY. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES ALREADY IN PLACE ABOVE THIS MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD BECOME VERY UNSTABLE ALONG/E OF THE FRONT FROM ERN PARTS OF THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS THROUGH THE MS VALLEY. INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT LESS TOWARD THE OH VALLEY WHERE LESS HEATING WILL PROBABLY OCCUR. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG THE DRYLINE FROM PARTS OF ERN KS SWD THROUGH ERN OK AND FARTHER SWD THROUGH N CNTRL AND E CNTRL TX BY MID AFTERNOON AS UPPER DIVERGENCE/LARGE SCALE ASCENT INCREASES AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP IN VICINITY OF TRIPLE POINT AND ALONG WARM FRONT E OF THE SURFACE LOW ACROSS NERN KS NR MO AREA. SHEAR PROFILES WILL FAVOR SUPERCELLS WITH INITIAL STORMS THAT DEVELOP WITH LARGE HAIL LIKELY AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. TORNADO THREAT MAY BE SOMEWHAT HIGHER OVER PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY INCLUDING NRN MO WHERE THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTERSECT BACKING FLOW NEAR THE SURFACE E OF DEEPENING LOW. LINEAR CONVERGENCE WILL INCREASE WITH TIME AS THE FRONT OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE. THUS ACTIVITY MAY EVENTUALLY EVOLVE INTO LINES CONTAINING EMBEDDED SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING WIDESPREAD DAMAGING WIND AS WELL AS ISOLATED TORNADOES AS IT SPREADS EWD TOWARD THE OH VALLEY AND SERN U.S. OVERNIGHT. ..DIAL.. 05/10/03 NNNN |