ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 150624 SPC AC 150616 STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS. VALID 151200Z - 161200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 NNE SGF 10 E VIH 25 S MTO 40 NNE SDF 30 SSW LEX 20 SSE BWG 55 SW ARG 50 S HRO 30 NE FYV 25 NNE SGF. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 10 NNW DEN 35 SSE LAR 35 N CYS 55 SSW GCC 30 WSW SHR 50 SE BIL 60 SSE GDV 15 SE Y22 20 ESE PHP 25 NNE AKO 40 NNW LIC 10 NNW DEN. THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SSE CRP 15 NW ALI 40 S SAT 30 S AUS 45 SSE CLL GLS. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 NE PBF 35 ESE SPS 50 NNW ABI 15 NNW SJT 65 ENE JCT 30 NNW CLL 25 NNE LFK 35 WNW JAN 50 NE PBF. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 70 ESE YUM 45 SW GCN 25 S PGA 35 N 4BL 55 N GJT 50 ESE RKS 30 WSW LND 40 E SUN 45 ESE BOI 60 SE BKE 30 ENE BNO 25 SE 4LW 45 W SVE 50 WNW RBL 35 ENE 4BK 50 N MFR 15 NE PDX 30 NNE HQM 15 W CLM ...CONT... 15 ENE INL 30 NW ATY 20 W YKN 30 NNW BBW 25 SW MCK 25 NE EHA 45 SSW P28 15 N MKC 30 NE DSM 30 ESE RST 60 SE DLH 80 NW CMX. ...SYNOPSIS... STRONG SHORT-WAVE TROUGH MOVING ACROSS ONTARIO / THE UPPER GREAT LAKES WILL CONTINUE EWD INTO THE MEAN TROUGH POSITION OVER THE EAST THIS PERIOD...WHILE SECOND TROUGH REMAINS OFF THE NW COAST. SOUTH OF THE MAIN JET...UPPER RIDGE IS FORECAST TO PERSIST FROM THE SOUTHWEST INTO THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE HURRICANE CLAUDETTE MOVES ONSHORE ACROSS THE MIDDLE TX COAST AND THEN WSWWD ACROSS S TX INTO NRN MEXICO. ...NRN HIGH PLAINS... THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NRN ROCKIES / NRN HIGH PLAINS DURING THE AFTERNOON IN MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. GREATEST INSTABILITY /500 TO 1500 J/KG 100 MB MEAN-LAYER CAPE/ IS EXPECTED ACROSS SERN MT / ERN WY / NERN CO. WITH 40 KT WLY MID- LEVEL FLOW ANTICIPATED ABOVE SELY LOW-LEVEL WIND FIELD...SHEAR WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED STORMS / SUPERCELLS. LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS CAN BE EXPECTED WITH A FEW OF THE STRONGER STORMS... WHICH MAY SPREAD / DEVELOP EWD INTO WRN SD / THE NEB PANHANDLE IN INCREASING WARM ADVECTION THROUGH THE EVENING. ...LOWER OH / MID MS VALLEY... MODELS SUGGEST CONVECTION SHOULD MOVE EWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES / OH VALLEY REGION TOMORROW AHEAD OF WEAK COLD FRONT AS UPPER TROUGH MOVES ACROSS THE AREA. HOWEVER...IT APPEARS THAT THE ETA IS OVERDOING AMOUNT OF INSTABILITY...GIVEN WARM LOW- TO MID-LEVEL TEMPERATURES. STRENGTH OF WIND FIELD AND ASSOCIATED UPPER SYSTEM WILL LIKELY CONTRIBUTE TO A FEW DAMAGING WIND / TORNADO EVENTS ACROSS A RELATIVELY LARGE AREA FROM THE CANADIAN BORDER SWD ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES INTO THE OH VALLEY. HOWEVER...GREATEST CONCENTRATION OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL LIKELY OCCUR ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION INTO THE LOWER OH VALLEY DURING THE AFTERNOON...WHERE STRONG UPPER DIFFLUENCE AND MARGINAL DEEP-LAYER WIND FIELD SPREADS OVER MODERATELY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. ...MIDDLE TX COAST... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WITHIN BANDS ASSOCIATED WITH HURRICANE CLAUDETTE CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOIST / MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS ACROSS SERN TX. STRONG DEEP-LAYER WINDS WILL PROVIDE SUFFICIENT SHEAR FOR ROTATING CONVECTION...AND THUS AN ISOLATED TORNADO OR TWO WILL BE POSSIBLE...ALONG WITH A CONVECTIVELY-INDUCED DAMAGING GUST OR TWO. ...SERN AZ... ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE FORECAST TO AGAIN DEVELOP OVER THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF SERN AZ AND THE MOGOLLON RIM. STORMS SHOULD MOVE WWD OFF THE MOUNTAINS ACROSS SERN AZ WITH ELY FLOW SOUTH OF UPPER RIDGE INTO MARGINALLY-UNSTABLE AIRMASS. LOCALLY DAMAGING WINDS / HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE STORMS INTO THE EVENING. ..GOSS.. 07/15/03 NNNN |