ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 170556
SPC AC 170556

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 171200Z - 181200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
65 NE MOT 65 NNE BIS 25 NNW MBG 20 SE PIR 45 S PHP 60 SSE 81V
35 SW 4BQ 35 SSW BIL 35 SSE 3HT 15 S LWT 60 WSW GGW 70 N OLF.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
10 SE OTG 40 SE RST 20 NNW MKG 10 NE AZO 45 W FWA 45 S UIN LWD
30 ESE OMA 20 SE SUX 10 SE OTG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 W RRT 35 NNW FAR
40 E ABR 10 E BKX 25 SE RWF 40 SW EAU AUW 45 SE ESC 25 E PLN
...CONT... 15 ESE SAN 30 NW RAL 35 E BFL 10 N MER 60 NNW SAC
15 SSW MHS 15 WSW LMT 30 WNW 4LW 25 SE 4LW 25 W NFL 30 WSW TPH
45 NNW DRA 15 NW P38 35 NNW MLF 45 N DPG 20 NW MLD 15 ESE MQM
45 ENE BOI 60 W BOI 40 SW BKE 20 SSW ALW 10 NNW S06 30 NNW CTB.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 50 W SJT 20 SE JCT
10 E AUS 45 ENE CLL 20 NNW GGG 10 SW PGO 35 ENE MKO 30 SE CNU
30 NNE TOP 20 NNW BIE 25 WSW EAR 25 SE IML 20 E LIC 35 SW LHX
10 ESE TCC 20 ENE HOB 50 W SJT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 20 N CAR 25 E 3B1
25 NW PWM 10 NE PSF 15 ESE AVP 35 SE PSB 30 NE PKB 40 E LUK
10 W EVV 30 N DYR MEM 15 SSE UOX 20 NE CBM 35 N BHM 20 WNW RMG
45 ENE CHA 15 WNW HSS 50 NNE HKY 10 WSW DAN 50 NNE RWI 20 NE ECG.



...MID MS VALLEY THROUGH UPPER GREAT LAKES REGION...

THE SURFACE FRONT FROM MN SWWD THROUGH SD WILL CONTINUE SWD AS
UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE GREAT LAKES. BY THURSDAY EVENING
THIS BOUNDARY IS FORECAST TO EXTEND FROM LOWER MI SWWD THROUGH
IA...NRN NEB THEN NWWD INTO ERN MT. 

ATMOSPHERE IS EXPECTED TO BECOME VERY UNSTABLE IN VICINITY OF THE
BOUNDARY FROM THE MID MS VALLEY WWD THROUGH PARTS OF THE CNTRL/NRN
PLAINS. COMBINATION OF STEEP LAPSE RATES...STRONG SURFACE HEATING
AND RICH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL CONTRIBUTE TO MLCAPES FROM 3000 TO
4000 J/KG. MODERATE INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED FARTHER EAST INTO THE
GREAT LAKES WHERE LAPSE RATES AND LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL BE
SOMEWHAT LESS. STRONG CAP ASSOCIATED WITH PLUME OF WARM AIR IN THE
2-3 KM LAYER HAS ESTABLISHED ITSELF OVER THE PLAINS AND WILL LIKELY
ADVECT FARTHER EWD INTO PARTS OF THE MID MS VALLEY. STORMS ARE
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP BY LATE AFTERNOON OR DURING THE EVENING ALONG
PORTION OF BOUNDARY ON ERN EDGE OF STRONGER CAP FROM CNTRL/ERN IA
INTO PARTS OF SRN WI/NRN IL. SHEAR PROFILES SUPPORT SUPERCELLS...
WITH LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WIND THE MAIN THREATS. ACTIVITY MAY
INTO THE EVENING...POSSIBLY EVOLVING INTO AN MCS OVER PARTS OF THE
MID MS VALLEY SUPPORTED BY WARM ADVECTION ON NOSE OF SWLY LOW LEVEL
JET.

...NRN HIGH PLAINS...

UPPER TROUGH NOW OVER BRITISH COLUMBIA WILL FLATTEN CREST OF UPPER
RIDGE OVER MT AS IT MOVES EWD THROUGH SRN ALBERTA AND SASKATCHEWAN.
TRAILING PORTION OF BOUNDARY OVER THE NRN PLAINS WILL EXTEND NWWD
INTO ERN MT. STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN OVER THE
HIGHER TERRAIN OF SWRN MT AND NRN WY THEN SPREAD NEWD DURING THE
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. ACTIVITY WILL LIKELY CONTINUE AS HIGH BASED
STORMS IN DEEPLY MIXED AIR OVER CNTRL/ERN MT. RICHER LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE WILL EXIST E OF THE BOUNDARY OVER EXTREME ERN MT INTO WRN
ND...BUT THE ATMOSPHERE IN THIS REGION WILL LIKELY BE MORE CAPPED
TO SURFACE BASED STORMS. IT IS POSSIBLE STORMS MAY SURVIVE INTO
THIS ENVIRONMENT GIVEN SHEAR SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS...WHICH
IMPLIES UPDRAFTS MAY BE STRONG ENOUGH TO FORCE PARCELS TO THEIR
LFCS. ACTIVITY MAY CONTINUE INTO THE OVERNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF THE
DAKOTAS SUPPORTED BY 20-30 KT SLY LOW LEVEL JET...BUT WILL LIKELY
BECOME ELEVATED ABOVE THE INVERSION.

...SRN AZ...

MOISTURE ASSOCIATED WITH REMNANTS OF CLAUDETTE WILL SPREAD INTO SRN
AZ. THIS SHOULD ENHANCE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT IN THIS REGION AS
THE ATMOSPHERE DESTABILIZES DURING THE AFTERNOON. WILL KEEP ONLY 5%
WIND PROBABILITIES AT THIS TIME GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES REGARDING
EXTENT OF CLOUDS AND DEGREE OF DESTABILIZATION. HOWEVER...THIS AREA
MAY NEED TO BE UPGRADED TO SLIGHT RISK IN LATER OUTLOOKS. 
 
..DIAL.. 07/17/03

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