ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 070559
SPC AC 070559

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1259 AM CDT SUN SEP 07 2003

VALID 071200Z - 081200Z

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 45 W
MRF 45 SSW GDP 40 NNW GDP 10 W ROW 50 SSW CVS 50 W LBB 45 NNW BGS 45
S BGS 75 ENE P07 25 NW DRT.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 35 SE YUM 50 N IGM 20
NNE ELY 25 ENE EKO 35 SSE OWY 35 SW OWY 65 WNW WMC 40 S MHS 45 WSW
MHS 10 S 4BK ...CONT... 70 N GFK 35 NNE ABR HON 40 ESE GRI 15 SSE
MWL 45 W TPL 20 ENE HDO 30 NW LRD.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 N GLS 35 SW LFK 45
SE PRX 20 WSW HOT 15 ENE MKL 20 NW CSV 25 W GSO 25 NE ECG.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 25 ENE PWM 20 WNW CON
10 SE ITH 25 W ERI 10 SSW LAN 30 SE OSH 55 NNE EAU 35 ESE INL.

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF W TX AND SE
NM...

...SYNOPSIS...
AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE ROCKIES WILL SHIFT EWD INTO THE HIGH PLAINS
TODAY. A VIGOROUS UPPER TROUGH OVER THE NE PACIFIC WILL MOVE ONSHORE
ONTO THE WEST COAST. A COLD FRONT ASSOCIATED WITH THE TROUGH WILL
MOVE EWD ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST. A STATIONARY FRONT WILL
REMAIN IN PLACE FROM THE NRN PLAINS STRETCHING EWD ACROSS THE GREAT
LAKES INTO THE NEW ENGLAND STATES.

...W TX/SE NM...
THE LEE TROUGH IN PLACE ACROSS SE NM AND W TX WILL SHARPEN TODAY IN
RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH AND UPPER-LEVEL JET MAX.
AS LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE FEEDS NWWD ALONG THE RIO GRANDE INTO W TX...A
DRYLINE MAY TAKE SHAPE INCREASING LOW-LEVEL CONVERGENCE. THIS
COMBINED WITH SFC HEATING AND TOPOGRAPHIC FORCING WILL LIKELY
INITIATE ISOLATED CONVECTION DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FORECAST
SOUNDINGS SHOW MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 750 J/KG WHICH MAY BE UNDER
FORECAST DUE TO THE MODELS POOR HANDLING OF LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE. SFC
DEWPOINTS ACROSS W TX ARE ALREADY IN THE 50S F. IN
ADDITION...MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER-LEVEL
JET WILL SPREAD OVER THE REGION BY PEAK HEATING CREATING 0-6 KM
SHEAR AROUND 40 KT. THIS WILL BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION
AND IF ENOUGH INSTABILITY DEVELOPS...AN ISOLATED SUPERCELL WILL BE
POSSIBLE. THE STEEP LAPSE RATES...COOL MID-LEVEL TEMPS AND INVERTED
V PROFILES SUGGEST A THREAT WILL EXIST FOR ISOLATED LARGE HAIL
AND/OR DAMAGING WIND GUSTS.

...SERN CO/SWRN KS/TX PANHANDLE/NE NM...
A SHARPENING LEE TROUGH AND MOIST AXIS WILL EXIST TODAY ACROSS THE
REGION WITH SFC DEWPOINTS AROUND 60 F. AS TEMPS WARM THIS
AFTERNOON...MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP AND CONVECTION WILL
LIKELY INITIATE IN THE MTNS OF NE NM AND SE CO. THE ACTIVITY SHOULD
STRENGTHEN AS IT MOVES INTO THE MOIST AXIS ACROSS THE CNTRL HIGH
PLAINS. DEEP LAYER SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE ABOUT 25 KT RESULTING IN
A POTENTIAL FOR ORGANIZED MULTICELL STORMS WITH A MARGINAL SEVERE
THREAT CLOSE TO PEAK HEATING. LAPSE RATES WILL BE STEEPEST SOUTH OF
THE CO STATE-LINE SUGGESTING THE BETTER THREAT FOR ISOLATED MARGINAL
HAIL WILL EXIST ACROSS NE NM AND INTO THE WRN TX PANHANDLE. AN
ISOLATED WIND GUST COULD ALSO OCCUR IN THIS AREA CONSIDERING THE
AMOUNT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR.

...NE MN/NRN WI/UPPER MI...
SFC DEWPOINTS NORTH OF A STATIONARY FRONT LOCATED ACROSS NRN MN AND
NRN WI WILL LIKELY BE IN THE 60S F TODAY. THIS COMBINED WITH SFC
TEMPS IN THE 80S F ACROSS NRN MN WILL CREATE MODERATE INSTABILITY
WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG. ALTHOUGH FORECAST SOUNDINGS
SUGGEST A CAP WILL BE IN PLACE MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON...LOW-LEVEL
CONVERGENCE AND SFC HEATING MAY BE ENOUGH TO BREAK THE CAP. IF
ISOLATED STORMS DEVELOP...THE CONVECTION WILL MOVE ESEWD INTO NRN WI
AND INTO UPPER MI DURING THE EVENING. THE MODERATE DEEP LAYER SHEAR
ACROSS THE REGION ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD UPPER-TROUGH OVER SERN
CANADA WOULD BE SUFFICIENT FOR ORGANIZED CONVECTION. WITH THE AMOUNT
OF INSTABILITY EXPECTED AND WITH COOLER MID-LEVEL TEMPS...HAIL WOULD
BE THE MAIN THREAT. HOWEVER...WILL NOT ISSUE A SLIGHT RISK DUE TO
THE UNCERTAINTY OF CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

..BROYLES/TAYLOR.. 09/07/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$