ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 120425 SPC AC 120425 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1125 PM CDT SAT OCT 11 2003 VALID 121200Z - 131200Z GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 55 ENE CTB 30 NNW HLN 45 SW 3DU PUW 30 NNW YKM 10 WNW AST. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 SSE CEW MAI VLD 30 SE JAX. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 65 SW TUS SOW 45 SSE GNT 4CR 45 SSE CVS 35 ENE BGS 55 WNW LFK GLS. ...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST... ...SYNOPSIS... IN MIDDLE-UPPER LEVELS...LARGELY ZONAL FLOW PATTERN TAKING SHAPE ACROSS CONUS THROUGH PERIOD. STRONG AND NEGATIVELY TILTED SHORTWAVE TROUGH -- EVIDENT IN LATEST MOISTURE CHANNEL IMAGERY OVER MN/WI/IL -- IS FCST TO MOVE RAPIDLY ENEWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES AND WEAKEN OVER SERN ONT/WRN QUE. ASSOCIATED SFC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP EWD ACROSS GREAT LAKES...MID ATLANTIC AND NEW ENGLAND AHEAD OF UPPER TROUGH. SRN PORTION OF SAME FRONT SHOULD WEAKEN AND DECELERATE OVER NWRN GULF AMIDST NELY LOW LEVEL FLOW ON BOTH SIDES. SFC-BASED INSTABILITY IS FCST TO BE SCANT TO NULL THROUGHOUT PERIOD. --- GEN TSTM AREAS --- CYCLONIC SHEAR/DEFORMATION ZONE ALOFT WILL EXTEND NEWD FROM PERSISTENT NW MEX CUT-OFF LOW...COMBINING WITH ISENTROPIC ASCENT IN LOW LEVELS TO MARGINALLY DESTABILIZE AIR MASS FROM RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO SERN AZ...SUPPORTING GEN TSTM POTENTIAL. MEANWHILE...WEAK LIFT AND WEAK CINH INVOF LOW LEVEL FRONTAL/CONFLUENCE ZONE MAY SUPPORT THUNDER OVER PORTIONS FL...HOWEVER CAPE AND SHEAR WILL BE TOO WEAK FOR ORGANIZED SEVERE THREAT. LOW-MIDLEVEL DESTABILIZATION AHEAD OF PACIFIC NW TROUGH SHOULD SUPPORT MUCAPES GENERALLY AOB 200 J/KG AND EPISODIC POTENTIAL FOR SHORT-LIVED TSTMS. ..EDWARDS.. 10/12/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |