ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL ACUS01 KWNS 260544 SPC AC 260544 DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1144 PM CST TUE NOV 25 2003 VALID 261200Z - 271200Z THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 40 S VCT 20 WNW VCT 55 SSE AUS 40 ESE AUS 15 W TXK 35 SW HOT 35 SE HOT 30 SE PBF 30 SW GLH 45 N HEZ 20 SSE 7R4. GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 15 ESE CRP 25 NNW NIR 35 SSW AUS 20 NNE AUS 40 N TYR 25 NE UNO 35 W MDH 35 W EVV 15 WNW OWB 30 NW BWG 40 SSE BNA 20 SSW BHM 50 SSW SEM 35 SE MOB. ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN TX...WRN LA...CNTRL LA AND SRN AR... ...SYNOPSIS... THE BROAD UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER THE WRN US WILL SHIFT EWD AND AMPLIFY ACROSS THE GREAT PLAINS TODAY. AT THE SFC...LOW PRESSURE WILL ORGANIZE ACROSS W TX LIFTING A WARM FRONT NWD ACROSS NRN AND ERN TX. ...ERN TX/WRN LA/CNTRL LA AND SRN AR... AS THE LARGE UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGS SEWD...SFC CYCLOGENESIS WILL OCCUR ACROSS W TX. THIS WILL REINFORCE ONSHORE FLOW FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO BRINGING UPPER 60 F SFC DEWPOINTS NWD ACROSS E TX TODAY. AS A RESULT...A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NWD AND SHOULD BE POSITIONED FROM NCNTRL TX EXTENDING SEWD INTO ERN TX. MODERATE INSTABILITY SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT AS SFC TEMPS HEAT UP BY THIS AFTERNOON. A DISTURBANCE CURRENTLY ACROSS NRN MEXICO WILL CROSS THE TX HILL COUNTRY BY MIDDAY AND SCATTERED STORMS SHOULD DEVELOP AHEAD OF IT ACROSS THE TX COASTAL PLAINS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW 50 KT OF DEEP LAYER SHEAR. THIS COMBINED WITH MLCAPE VALUES AROUND 2000 J/KG SUGGEST SUPERCELLS WILL BE LIKELY. AND WITH 0-1 KM SHEAR AROUND 25 KT...A THREAT FOR ISOLATED TORNADOES WILL ALSO EXIST. THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR TORNADOES WILL EXIST NEAR AND TO THE SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT TO THE LEFT OF THE LOW-LEVEL JET FROM THE HOUSTON AREA EXTENDING NWD TO ECNTRL TX. AS THE LOW-LEVEL JET INCREASES DURING THE EARLY EVENING...THE WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE AS THE LARGE CLUSTER OF CONVECTION DEVELOPS AND MOVES EWD ACROSS WRN AND CNTRL LA. A WIND DAMAGE POTENTIAL SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS AS THE CONVECTIVE CLUSTER MOVES INTO AR AND WRN MS. ..BROYLES.. 11/26/2003 ...NOTICE... FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3. THE INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED. $$ |