ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 280531
SPC AC 280531

DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1131 PM CST SAT DEC 27 2003

VALID 281200Z - 291200Z

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 60 S CRP ALI 35 E SAT
25 SE ACT 35 SSE PRX 45 NNW HOT 20 NNE UNO 10 NW BLV 15 NW MTO 30 N
IND DAY 10 NE LEX 25 NE BNA 10 NE MSL 30 NNW MEI 40 NNW GPT 20 SE
BVE.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNE OTH 35 NW MHS
RBL 20 SW SAC 35 SSE MRY.

...NO SVR TSTM AREAS FORECAST...

...SYNOPSIS...
FULL LATITUDE TROUGH FROM NWRN MN SWWD THROUGH THE SRN ROCKIES WILL
MOVE SLOWLY EWD OVER THE SRN PLAINS DURING THE PERIOD. INCREASING
MID/UPPER LEVEL HEIGHT GRADIENT IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE OFF THE
WA/OR COAST AFTER 29/00Z ENHANCING SRN STREAM VORTICITY MAX OVER THE
TX PANHANDLE/NWRN TX.  THIS WILL ENHANCE FRONTOGENESIS OVER THE ERN
TX AND LOWER MS VALLEY DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD.

...ERN TX AND LA NWD INTO PARTS OF IL/IN...
BOTH THE GFS AND ETA MODELS ENHANCE SRN PLAINS VORTICITY MAX BY
29/00Z.  WOULD EXPECT WEAK SURFACE LOW TO DEVELOP AS A REFLECTION OF
THIS FEATURE OVER NWRN AR AT 00Z AND ANOTHER OVER SERN AR/NERN LA AT
THE END OF THE PERIOD. UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT 850/500 MB WILL
EXTEND FROM THE LOWER MS VALLEY NNEWD THROUGH THE GREAT LAKES. 
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO REDEVELOP ALONG/JUST AHEAD OF
THE COLD FRONT MORE SO DURING THE LATTER HALF OF THE PERIOD AS PVA
INCREASES ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS.  WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW AT
LOW/MID LEVELS...LACK OF MID LEVEL COLD ADVECTION LEADS TO MID LEVEL
LAPSE RATES NEAR/AROUND 6C/KM. THUS...LACK OF SUFFICIENT
INSTABILITY IS EXPECTED TO INHIBIT SEVERE PROBABILITIES DURING THE
PERIOD.

...SWRN OR SWD THRU NWRN CA AND CENTRAL CA COAST...

EMBEDDED SHORTWAVE TROUGH NR 43N 150W IS FORECAST TO APPROACH NRN CA
COAST TOWARDS THE END OF THE PERIOD.  MODELS INDICATE SURFACE LOW
WILL BE OFF THE NRN CA COAST BY 29/12Z WITH EXIT REGION OF 120 KT
UPPER LEVEL JET APPROACHING REGION.  THIS COMBINED WITH ENTRANCE
REGION OF 130 KT UPPER LEVEL JET FROM ID INTO NWRN CO...LEAVES AREA
OF STRONG UPWARD ASCENT TO SUPPORT SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
PARTS OF SRN OR COAST SWD OVER CENTRAL CA COAST.

..MCCARTHY.. 12/28/2003

...NOTICE...
FOR USERS DECODING THE POINTS PARAGRAPH HEREIN...LATITUDE AND
LONGITUDE POINTS FOR THE CATEGORICAL AND PROBABILISTIC OUTLOOK
GRAPHICS ALSO ARE LOCATED IN A SEPARATE PRODUCT UNDER THE WMO
HEADINGS WUUS01 PTSDY1...WUUS02 PTSDY2...AND WUUS03 PTSDY3.  THE
INCLUSION OF POINTS IN THIS PRODUCT WILL EVENTUALLY BE DISCONTINUED.

$$