ZCZC SPCSWODY1 ALL
ACUS01 KWNS 081314
SPC AC 081310

STORM PREDICTION CENTER...NWS/NCEP...NORMAN OK 
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK...REF AWIPS GRAPHIC PGWE46 KWNS.

VALID 081300Z - 091200Z

THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING ACROSS
NERN OK / SERN KS / SWRN MO.  THE MDT RISK AREA IS TO THE RIGHT OF
A LINE FROM 30 E OJC 45 SSE SZL 40 ESE SGF 40 NNW FYV 10 E TUL 50
SSE PNC 20 NW OKC 45 WNW OKC 25 NNW END 20 ENE P28 20 SSW HUT 10
ENE EMP 30 E OJC.

THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM
50 SSE DTW 20 W LUK 25 SW HOP 55 WSW MEM 30 SW TXK 15 S DAL
30 WSW MWL 55 WNW MWL 20 NNW SPS 50 WNW END 35 WSW P28 40 E DDC
25 SW SLN 15 NE FNB 35 ENE MCW 15 NE LSE 15 SSW OSC.

GEN TSTMS ARE FCST TO THE RIGHT OF A LINE FROM 30 NNW DAB
45 ESE VLD 25 SSE ATL 45 NNE GAD 15 S MSL 30 NE MLU 40 SW LFK
50 ENE COT 40 NW LRD ...CONT... 25 SW P07 35 ENE BGS 25 NE CDS
40 N CDS 15 NW AMA 25 W TCC 10 SE ABQ 50 SSW GUP 30 NNW INW
70 ESE PGA 10 W CEZ 20 SSE MTJ 50 E CAG 50 ENE RWL 40 NW LND
30 E IDA 15 S DLN 20 ENE BTM 10 WNW 3HT 40 SW MLS 15 ESE 81V
45 W BFF 45 E FCL 30 E LIC 50 ESE GLD EAR 25 ESE MHE 15 N AXN
15 NE ELO ...CONT... 30 ENE ROC 15 WNW BGM 10 NW ILG 30 NE SBY.

...SYNOPSIS...
WRN U.S. MID-LEVEL TROUGH WILL MOVE EWD INTO THE PLAINS THIS
PERIOD AS NRN STREAM AND SRN STREAM PHASE.  HEIGHTS ARE FORECAST TO
FALL ACROSS THE PLAINS IN ADVANCE OF THIS TROUGH...RESULTING IN
BROAD SYNOPTIC-SCALE UVV.

UVV WILL BE FOCUSED ALONG SEVERAL SURFACE BOUNDARIES...INCLUDING A
A COLD FRONT WHICH WILL DROP SWD ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO THE
SRN PLAINS / MS VALLEY...A DRYLINE WILL EXTENDING SWD ACROSS OK
INTO TX THIS AFTERNOON...AND MAIN OUTFLOW FROM EARLIER CONVECTION
WHICH WILL MOVE SLOWLY NWD INTO KS / ACROSS OZARKS REGION. 

...CENTRAL / SRN PLAINS INTO THE MS / OH VALLEYS / GREAT LAKES...
ANOTHER POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER EPISODE SETTING UP
ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND SRN PLAINS / MID MS VALLEY TODAY.

ONGOING STORMS ACROSS THE OZARKS REGION HAVE LAID OUT AN OUTFLOW
WHICH NOW EXTENDS ACROSS NRN OK / NRN AR.  MEANWHILE...SURFACE LOW
IS ANALYZED IN SWRN KS WITH A WARM FRONT EXTENDING NEWD FROM THE
LOW ACROSS NERN KS / NRN MO.WITH TIME...LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
NEWD ALONG WARM FRONT... ALLOWING BOUNDARY TO SURGE SWD ACROSS KS
TOWARD OK AS A COLD FRONT.  SECONDARY LOW IS FORECAST TO DEVELOP
ALONG BOUNDARY OVER WRN OK.

AIRMASS ACROSS OK SOUTH OF OUTFLOW IS MOIST / MODERATELY
UNSTABLE...AND AS SLY FLOW INCREASES...OUTFLOW IS FORECAST TO MOVE
SLOWLY NWD.  DAYTIME HEATING COMBINED WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES WILL
RESULT IN SIGNIFICANT DESTABILIZATION...WITH SURFACE-BASED CAPE
2500 TO 3500 J/KG EXPECTED.  DESTABILIZATION WILL LIKELY BE LESS
ACROSS NERN KS / NRN MO WHERE CONVECTIVELY-COOLED / MOISTENED
AIRMASS EXISTS.  

STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP ALONG COLD FRONT ACROSS KS DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO W CENTRAL OK.  DEVELOPMENT
MAY ALSO OCCUR FURTHER SWD ALONG DRYLINE INTO N TX...ALTHOUGH CAP
MAY SUPPRESS DEVELOPMENT IN THIS AREA.  WITH 50 KT SWLY MID-LEVEL
JET IN THE SRN STREAM OVER THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON...SUFFICIENT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO RAPIDLY BECOME
SUPERCELLS.  STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY LARGE HAIL /
DAMAGING WINDS.  IT APPEARS ATTM THAT GREATEST THREAT FOR
SIGNIFICANT / LONG-LIVED TORNADOES WILL EXIST FROM NRN OK NEWD INTO
E CENTRAL KS / W CENTRAL MO WHERE LOW-LEVEL FLOW WILL LIKELY BE
MOST BACKED AHEAD OF SURFACE LOW AND INVOF RETREATING CONVECTIVE
BOUNDARY.  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE NEAR NRN SURFACE LOW /
WARM FRONT ACROSS SRN IA / NRN MO / WRN IL...ALTHOUGH WEAKER
INSTABILITY IN THIS AREA MAY LIMIT STORM INTENSITY.

OVERNIGHT...STORMS WILL LIKELY INCREASE IN COVERAGE ALONG COLD
FRONT AND MOVE EWD INTO THE MS / OH VALLEY / SRN GREAT LAKES
REGION.  DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT
OVERNIGHT...ALTHOUGH EMBEDDED BOWS / SUPERCELLS MAY POSE AN
ISOLATED TORNADO THREAT.

...NC / VA...
THUNDERSTORMS MAY DEVELOP IN VA / NC TODAY ALONG STALLED SURFACE
BOUNDARY.  FORCING WILL LIKELY BE WEAK AND INSTABILITY SOMEWHAT
LIMITED GIVEN WEAK LAPSE RATES...SUGGESTING THAT STORM COVERAGE
WILL BE ISOLATED.  HOWEVER...SUFFICIENT MID-LEVEL FLOW EXISTS TO
ALLOW SOME STORM ORGANIZATION AND A LOCALLY DAMAGING WIND / HAIL
THREAT.  HOWEVER...THREAT APPEARS ATTM TO BE TOO LIMITED TO ISSUE
A SLIGHT RISK.
 
..GOSS.. 05/08/02

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